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Asia’s economic calendar for 31 March 2025 focuses on China’s official PMI releases for March. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are anticipated to improve slightly from February.
Historically, the manufacturing PMI fluctuated, with readings of 49.4 in July 2024, declining to 49.1 in August, and rebounding to 50.2 in February 2025, indicating a return to expansion. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.2 in January 2025 from 52.2 in December 2024 before slightly rising again to 50.4 in February.
Differences Between NBS And Caixin Pmi
Upcoming Caixin PMIs will provide further insights, differing from the official PMI in provider, survey scope, and methodology. The NBS PMI reflects large and state-owned enterprises, while the Caixin PMI focuses on SMEs. Each offers unique perspectives on China’s economic landscape.
The current data highlights a gentle upward shift in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures after earlier softness. In February, the manufacturing gauge pushed slightly above the neutral 50 threshold, signalling a modest move back into expansion territory. This follows a series of weaker prints mid-2024, suggesting that supply-side constraints may be easing or that policy support measures earlier deployed are now filtering through.
In the services sector, the non-manufacturing PMI remains above contraction but has not yet reclaimed the higher readings seen late last year. The lower print in January triggered questions around domestic demand resilience post-Lunar New Year, though February revealed marginal improvement. With both measures hovering just beyond the 50 mark, momentum appears tentative.
Now, with the Caixin readings due shortly, we should be prepared for potential divergences. These often paint a different picture, particularly for sectors less influenced by direct state intervention. The Caixin PMIs draw from smaller, more flexible firms often exposed to shifts in global demand and credit conditions. In contrast, the state-focused NBS survey offers a broader view of official support impact.
Market Positioning And Potential Reactions
As we move towards the next batch of data, we must be alert to how markets might reassess pricing on the back of revised expectations. For those of us watching rates and vol markets, delta risk around the 50 line is something to factor in. A stronger Caixin print, even marginally so, can trigger a recalibration in equity indices and exchange rate assumptions, especially across regional pairs.
We’ve found that in prior instances where these two measures diverged, short-term positioning has unwound rapidly, particularly in offshore yuan plays. That’s a tendency to keep in mind. If the Caixin indicators confirm stabilisation and push higher—say, towards 51 or more—expect a bounce in risk appetite, especially among cyclical exposures grouped within Asia ex-Japan.
It’s worth paying attention to metals demand proxies and related commodities too. These often move ahead of the data on sentiment shifts, acting as a kind of real-time barometer for anticipated policy reactions. As indicated by previous cycles, we look for steel and copper prices to trade more actively in the days leading up to the PMI releases.
Timing matters. With end-of-quarter flows possibly heightening volatility and many positioning for forward-looking statements on stimulus, we are now in a window where modest beats or misses can run further than usual. That gives opportunity—but also raises the stakes.
Watch the spread behaviour in fixed income curves across the short end, especially within RMB and AUD-linked pricing. A slight overshoot versus expectations could pull rate cut bets forward, while a weaker read could reignite deflation fears. This is not an area to be passive.
Monitoring hedging activity and open interest in short-dated options linked to mainland-exposed indices may offer early clues on sentiment shifts. Flows have previously front-run macro releases through structured note hedging, particularly when implied vols are compressed. That’s worth tracking as we get closer to the print.
Finally, we don’t need fresh records or oversized surprises to see price action accelerate. Marginal reassurance that activity is not rolling over tends to be enough to bring buyers back in, even if conviction remains thin. Stay nimble, observe volumes alongside the top-line print, and reassess accordingly.
