The USDCHF pair is trading near lows prior to the FOMC and SNB rate decisions. The US Dollar remains under pressure against major currencies, despite higher Core PCE estimates and better Retail Sales data.
Market expectations for the Fed shifted from anticipating over 80 basis points of easing to around 59 basis points. The upcoming FOMC meeting is predicted to maintain steady rates, yet this has not reversed the USD selling trend.
Swiss Inflation And SNB Outlook
Swiss CPI beat forecasts, with the core measure stable at 1.00% year-on-year. The SNB’s potential rate cut faces a 76% chance, amid expectations that German fiscal stimulus may support the Swiss economy.
Technical analysis shows that USDCHF appears to be in a downtrend, with sellers targeting a break below the 0.8727 level. Buyers await a price increase towards the 0.90 level.
On the 4-hour chart, a minor upward trendline was broken, prompting sellers to target the 0.8727 level again. Buyers may look to buy the dip if the price drops to this level.
The 1-hour chart indicates bearish momentum, with sellers maintaining pressure under the downward trendline. Buyers seek to enter on a break above for a potential pullback.
Key Market Events Ahead
Upcoming catalysts include the FOMC and SNB Policy Decisions, along with US Jobless Claims data.
The USD/CHF pair has remained near its recent lows as traders await key central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are both set to announce their latest policy decisions, making this a pivotal moment for those trading the pair.
The dollar’s struggles against major currencies have continued, despite economic data that might have otherwise supported it. Core PCE inflation projections have been revised higher, and retail sales figures have exceeded expectations. Even with this, the US currency remains on the back foot. The market has dialled back its Fed rate cut expectations from over 80 basis points to approximately 59 basis points for the year, but this shift has failed to trigger a sustained rebound. Investors seem more focused on broader trends rather than adjusting positions purely based on central bank pricing.
Swiss inflation data exceeded projections, though the core annual rate held steady at 1.00%. Meanwhile, the SNB’s next move remains a key topic, with traders currently assigning a 76% probability to a rate cut. Some believe that potential German fiscal measures could provide a boost to Swiss economic activity, which adds complexity to the outlook.
Technically, the USD/CHF pair remains under selling pressure. Sellers continue to drive action lower, looking to break through the 0.8727 level. If that level is lost, further declines may follow. On the other hand, those looking for a rebound are keeping watch for a push higher towards the 0.90 mark, where resistance is expected.
Short-term charts reinforce the current downward bias. A minor upward trendline was breached on the four-hour timeframe, and this has emboldened sellers aiming for a renewed test of 0.8727. If prices reach that level again, buyers may see an opportunity to step in and attempt a recovery.
A similar story plays out on the one-hour chart. Momentum has remained in favour of sellers, who have kept prices below a descending trendline. Those looking for an upward move may wait for a breakout before stepping in, seeking a potential corrective move higher.
As the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank prepare for their announcements, market focus remains locked on their guidance. US jobless claims data will also be watched closely.
