The USDCAD pair remains mostly stable as traders await the April 2nd deadline concerning US tariffs to be announced on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar may experience strong appreciation if the news is favourable, leading to a focus on patience during this period.
On the 1-hour chart, the price has recently bounced back from the lowest range, with increased buying interest aiming to breach the downward trendline. The upward trendline now characterises the bullish momentum, with buyers likely aiming for the resistance at 1.4380.
Market Awaits Key Technical Direction
Sellers, conversely, are looking for a break below the current price to target support or to wait for a resistance level for improved risk-reward opportunities. Today’s release of Canadian GDP and US PCE reports may cause short-term fluctuations, but the primary attention remains on the upcoming April 2nd event.
What we’ve seen so far is a market pausing at the edge of a key calendar moment. With the potential tariff announcement due, price action in the 1-hour timeframe is responding to both technical levels and the broader anticipation of economic output data.
The recent recovery from the lower boundary suggests that buyers are regaining control, nudging the pair toward the 1.4380 barrier. This recovery has pulled in volume on the long side, which coincides with a steeper short-term trendline now acting as a guide for bull momentum. Last week’s reluctance to break lower brought renewed confidence, and with price hugging the upward trendline, the bullish structure remains intact for now.
For those positioned on the short side, discipline remains important. The drop through immediate support has not materialised, and sellers appear to be holding back until a more favourable setup becomes apparent—either through a clean rejection at resistance or further confirmation of a weakening push toward that 1.4380 area.
Volatility Expected Post Announcement
Monday’s GDP figures from Canada and the core PCE from the US have added a stir to otherwise cautious trading. While reaction to these was visible, it did not translate into directional follow-through. This suggests that both bulls and bears are reluctant to act decisively until after Wednesday’s outcome. It is worth observing that market participants are increasingly favouring defined parameters, which fits the underlying patience we’ve seen heading into the decision.
Going forward, technical structure is likely to hold meaning. If the price pushes above the descending line that capped it earlier, and buyers manage a daily close near resistance, it would reinforce the bullish case. Absent that, however, fade attempts at recent highs may reappear, particularly if the upward structure loses strength without new information.
We are, at this point, focusing less on intraday noise and more on the sustained response around the April 2nd announcement. Existing positions should be managed with volatility in mind, especially as the reaction to the news may prove far more forceful than current price levels suggest. Tight stops have been favoured by many ahead of the event, a logical choice in a measured setup.
Looking at volume and price behaviour, the potential for a breakout remains contingent on what is said mid-week. Downside positions should probably not overcommit before a technical trigger confirms it. The path upward, while logically built into the recent trend, still lacks a convincing catalyst, something that may emerge in the coming sessions.
In such periods, we find that reacting to what price confirms rather than predicting where it might go often yields better outcomes. Biases can shift quickly after binary events, and this particular setup appears primed for a reaction worth waiting to act on—rather than anticipating too early.
