Next week will feature rate decisions from the FOMC, BoJ, BoE, SNB, Riksbank, and PBoC. Key data releases include US Retail Sales, China activity data, Canadian and Japanese CPI, New Zealand GDP, and job reports from Australia and the UK.
China’s industrial production is forecast to decrease to 5.4% year-on-year in February, while retail sales and fixed asset investments are anticipated to rise to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively. Analysts predict retail sales may improve due to trade-in programmes, although external demand impacts industrial production.
US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.7% month-on-month in February, compared to a previous decline. Spending patterns indicate stronger growth among higher-income households while lower-income consumers may face challenges from rising food prices.
The Canadian CPI for February is unlikely to reflect tariff impacts, as businesses face increasing costs. The FOMC is anticipated to maintain rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a focus on updated economic projections amidst concerns over tariffs and economic indicators.
The BoJ is also expected to keep rates unchanged, considering recent wage rises and price expectations. Conversely, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is predicted to grow by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, though uncertainty remains.
The BoE is anticipated to hold the base rate at 4.5%, influenced by ongoing inflation and labour market developments. The SNB may consider cuts in response to market conditions, while the Riksbank is likely to maintain rates based on economic trends.
The PBoC is expected to keep Loan Prime Rates steady, reflecting a cautious outlook. Australian employment figures are projected to improve slightly, while Japan’s CPI may decrease marginally due to energy subsidies affecting inflation measures.
In the UK, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable amid uncertain wage growth trends following mixed labour market data.
The upcoming week presents multiple interest rate decisions and economic data releases that have the potential to impact sentiment and pricing across financial markets. The range of central bank meetings, combined with inflation reports and employment figures, means a broad assessment of monetary policy direction will be possible. Market participants will be weighing central bankers’ words carefully, looking for any indication of future policy shifts.
Chinese economic activity will be scrutinised for signs of resilience. Industrial production is forecast to slow, reflecting external demand pressures. However, retail sales and fixed asset investments are expected to show moderate increases. Government incentives, such as trade-in programmes, are likely supporting consumer spending, though these measures might not fully offset weakening global trade. The impact of these trends will be considered in conjunction with broader sentiment around China’s post-pandemic economic trajectory.
Retail spending in the United States is projected to rebound after a previous contraction, with a 0.7% month-on-month increase anticipated for February. Spending preferences indicate that higher-income households remain a source of strength, whereas lower-income demographics may struggle under persistent food price inflation. Given that consumer demand plays a core role in determining growth stability, any deviation from expectations could prompt market recalculations.
Canada’s inflation print for February is unlikely to show the effects of recent tariff changes, though businesses are increasingly pressured by elevated input costs. The Bank of Canada has signalled caution in its rate decisions, and another price increase would reinforce market views on when policy adjustments might occur.
Monetary policy developments in the US will particularly capture attention, with the Federal Open Market Committee expected to keep rates steady. Updated projections will be examined closely for insights into how policymakers perceive economic momentum in the face of tariff concerns and growth signals.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also unlikely to shift policy, with recent wage growth and inflation expectations keeping speculation regarding normalisation alive. Should guidance hint at eventual changes, market reactions could be pronounced.
New Zealand’s economy is projected to expand by 0.4% in the final quarter of last year, though uncertainty remains given the broader economic backdrop. Growth trends will influence expectations for future monetary decisions, particularly concerning inflation stability.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain interest rates amid ongoing inflation and labour market pressures. Wage dynamics have been mixed, adding complexity to economic assessments. How policymakers frame their outlook will be closely examined, as markets gauge when rate cuts might begin.
Switzerland’s central bank could entertain the idea of reducing rates if financial conditions warrant, while Sweden’s Riksbank is more likely to maintain its current stance, given prevailing economic indicators. Any shift in either case would be carefully noted.
China’s central bank is expected to hold its Loan Prime Rates steady, opting for stability over immediate easing. Given broader economic uncertainties, Chinese authorities appear to be proceeding cautiously.
Australia’s job numbers are likely to show a mild improvement, though not enough to alter current expectations around rate policy. In Japan, inflation may ease slightly due to government energy subsidies lowering consumer price measures, adding another consideration for Bank of Japan policymakers.
The UK labour market is anticipated to remain steady, with unemployment holding at current levels. Wage growth trends have been mixed, contributing to uncertainty regarding future shifts in household demand and inflation pressures.
With multiple policy decisions and economic indicators set for release, the coming week will provide clear guidance on how central banks and markets are adjusting to shifting conditions. Each data point will contribute to shaping expectations, making it an important period for those monitoring rate trajectories and economic trends.
