The USDCAD pair faced strong resistance at the 100-hour moving average, currently situated at 1.4329, impeding its recent upward movement. This resistance, combined with the 200-hour MA at 1.4343, indicates a lack of momentum among buyers.
Currently, the price is approaching a support zone between 1.4268 and 1.4278, shaped by recent swing levels. A decisive move below this zone could intensify downward pressure, with the next major target being the 100-day moving average at 1.4252, which has not been surpassed since October 9.
Neutral Short Term Range
As long as the price remains below 1.4329 or above 1.4268, the pair stays within a neutral short-term range. However, while below the 100-hour moving average, the momentum remains tilted towards selling, with sellers aiming to breach the swing support zone and target the 100-day moving average.
The analysis presented highlights a key resistance area where the pair struggled to gain traction. The 100-hour moving average at 1.4329 acted as a hurdle, preventing further upside momentum. Beyond this level, the 200-hour moving average at 1.4343 adds another layer of resistance, reinforcing the difficulty buyers face in regaining control. These factors suggest that upward movement is being met with hesitation, as there is no clear strength from those looking to push prices higher.
On the downside, attention shifts to the support region between 1.4268 and 1.4278. This zone has been shaped by recent price swings, making it an area where prior buying interest emerged. If the price falls below this range with conviction, downward pressure will likely increase. The next area of focus would be the 100-day moving average at 1.4252, a level that has remained intact since early October. A break below this point would indicate that sellers are gaining further control, potentially changing the broader bias.
Market Outlook
For now, price action remains contained within a narrow range. As long as trading persists below 1.4329 but does not slip beneath 1.4268, conditions favour short-term neutrality. However, given that the pair has remained beneath the 100-hour moving average, selling pressure appears to hold the advantage. This suggests traders positioning for downside movement will continue monitoring whether the support zone holds or fails, as breaking lower would open the door towards the next objective.
Looking ahead, the behaviour around these technical levels will provide clarity on whether buyers have the strength to reverse the current trend or if sellers will continue pressing lower. The proximity of these moving averages and support zones means the market faces an important period, where any decisive movement could guide the next phase of trading. Price reactions should be closely monitored, particularly if volatility increases.
