The USDCAD is currently testing the lower boundary of its consolidation range at 1.4268, with buyers showing activity at this level. The price needs to break above 1.4300 to indicate potential upward movement, while a fall below 1.42319 could suggest further declines.
This currency pair has fluctuated between 1.4268 and 1.4471, reacting to tariff-related developments. Previous attempts to break out of this range have been unsuccessful, reverting back to the established levels.
Recent Breakdown And Support
A recent breakdown lasted for a week and a half, with support found around 1.4150. The price rebounded into the consolidation range, indicating ongoing buyer interest at lower prices.
Today’s trading dipped to 1.42653 but rebounded to 1.4290. For further upside, buyers must surpass the 61.8% retracement and break through the resistance at 1.4300.
The price fell below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages, which currently stand at 1.43699 and 1.43382. This decline has supported sellers, prompting movement to lower levels.
Should the price break down further, the 100-day moving average is at 1.42319, which corresponds closely with the March 6 low of 1.4238. The USDCAD has not traded below the 100-day moving average since October 2024.
This analysis outlines how the USDCAD has hovered within a recognised price range, facing resistance and support at key levels. Buyers have shown interest at the lower boundary, while sellers have held firm closer to the upper limits. For those of us tracking short-term moves, understanding these boundaries helps in managing risk and identifying possible entries.
Key Levels To Watch
The latest movement suggests that traders are carefully watching 1.4300 as a level that could signal a shift higher if broken. However, any failure to hold above this could lead to renewed selling pressure, particularly if the pair moves below 1.42319. Given its recent inability to sustain breakouts, strategies that factor in potential rejections from these levels remain relevant.
Earlier attempts to breach the range were short-lived, with reversals keeping the market contained. Last week’s decline, which saw prices temporarily drop to 1.4150, only reinforced demand at lower levels. Buyers emerged once again, bringing the pair back within familiar territory. This suggests a general reluctance to allow a prolonged breakdown, at least for now.
More recently, the pair dipped as low as 1.42653 before recovering to 1.4290. If buyers hope to maintain control, surpassing 1.4300 and holding above it would be necessary. This level aligns with the 61.8% retracement, often viewed as a critical threshold in technical analysis. Without such a break, gains are likely to remain limited.
Meanwhile, price action below both the 100 and 200-bar moving averages has strengthened the bearish argument. The fact that these averages—currently at 1.43699 and 1.43382—now stand above market price indicates declining momentum. This technical setup emboldens sellers, pressing for lower levels in the short term.
Should the pair extend its decline, the next area of focus lies near 1.42319. Not only does this represent the 100-day moving average, but it also closely aligns with the March 6 low at 1.4238. The last time the pair traded below this long-term measure was in October. A move under this threshold might encourage additional downside pressure, challenging the resolve of buyers who have previously stepped in near these levels.
