On March 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its current policy settings. A survey of 52 economists indicates unanimous agreement on this expectation.
For those unfamiliar with BoJ Day, the timing for the policy statement is not fixed. However, it is generally expected to be released between 0230 and 0330 GMT, with a press conference led by Ueda scheduled for 0630 GMT.
Economist Consensus On Policy
A unanimous consensus among economists is rare, yet all 52 surveyed anticipate no immediate changes from the Bank of Japan. This level of agreement suggests that policymakers are not currently under pressure to shift their stance despite ongoing discussions about future adjustments. That said, market participants will still analyse every word of the policy statement and Ueda’s remarks for any indication of what may come next.
While the policy statement lacks a fixed release time, past behaviour suggests it should emerge between 0230 and 0330 GMT. The press conference at 0630 GMT will likely attract as much attention as the statement itself, as traders look for any shift in tone or language that could hint at future moves. Small phrasing changes have altered market expectations before, and another adjustment in messaging could do so again.
Given recent trends in inflation and wage negotiations, any comment from Ueda on these matters will be scrutinised. If the governor acknowledges progress in meeting the central bank’s inflation target, speculation regarding an eventual shift in interest rates could intensify. On the other hand, any emphasis on uncertainty or external risks may reinforce expectations that the current stance will persist for longer.
Global Influences On Market Reactions
Beyond Japan’s borders, global central banks are also shaping expectations. Recent moves from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank may influence how investors interpret any shift in messaging from Tokyo. If rate differentials begin to widen or contract, currency traders will react accordingly, potentially driving volatility in the yen.
With that in mind, approaches over the next few weeks should be guided by careful observation of both domestic and international signals. Expectations may be firmly in place for now, but abrupt moves have caught markets off guard before. It only takes a subtle shift in policy language or external conditions to prompt reassessments, and recent history shows that such moments tend to arrive when the majority least expects them.
