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EUR/USD experienced a strong rally on Thursday, settling around the 1.1100 mark after the European session. The pair showed solid intraday gains, propelled by bullish momentum towards the upper half of its daily range.
The technical outlook favours upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 72.32, indicating overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signalled a potential sell, implying possible exhaustion.
Key Technical Levels In Focus
Support levels include 1.0903, 1.0866, and 1.0861. The recent session high at 1.1145 serves as immediate resistance; surpassing this may lead to further upward movement.
This recent pop in the EUR/USD to just under 1.1100 was not exactly unexpected, but the strength of the move caught some by surprise. We’d seen accumulation building up during the prior sessions, but the size of the breakout on Thursday suggests that buyers had been waiting for a moment to push through with purpose. Most of the advance unfolded during the European session with momentum carrying it towards the top of the daily range—but momentum doesn’t necessarily equate to stamina.
Technically, we’re now in overbought territory. The RSI pushing above 70 and sitting at 72.32 tells us that buying has been aggressive and possibly rushed. When the RSI climbs that high, it’s often followed by a temporary cooling off. At the same time, the MACD is flashing a warning sign of its own. That sell signal we see setting up might indicate that buyers are losing steam just as latecomers pile in. If the MACD rolls over definitively, it will confirm that the rally may be overstretched.
From a price level perspective, the support near 1.0903, followed closely by 1.0866 and 1.0861, marks out the zone where any meaningful pullback will likely be tested. This area held during previous dips, so if the pair rolls over in the near term, that cluster becomes a spot where valuation meets technical defence. Short-dated traders might find opportunities here, but patience is better than attempts at calling a top prematurely.
Crucial Resistance And Risk Strategy
Looking upwards, the prior session’s high at 1.1145 is a logical resistance. What happens if that level is cleared decisively? It could open up a fresh leg higher, and we’d be watching intraday momentum metrics closely if that occurs. However, fading strength against that line while the RSI remains elevated is also a favourite among those looking for shorter mean reversion trades.
In these conditions, positioning needs to be nimble. The pair has moved quickly, and when both RSI and MACD start to move in opposite directions, they often resolve with a short-term correction before choosing a broader direction. Timing becomes more important than bias.
So while we’ve seen this push higher prove persistent so far, risk management should dictate entries. Chasing price action in overbought territory has rewarded few, and we’re wary of false breaks around key levels. Watching how price responds near 1.1145, rather than guessing ahead of it, remains key to finding favourable set-ups in the coming days, especially now that longer-term funds may be reassessing positioning.
In short, there’s no room for hesitation, but there’s even less room for complacency.
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