In March 2025, ADP reported an increase of 155,000 jobs in the US, surpassing the expected 115,000. The previous figure was revised from 77,000 to 84,000.
Goods-producing jobs rose by 24,000 compared to 42,000 previously, while service-providing jobs saw an increase of 132,000, a rise from 36,000 prior. Pay growth for job stayers was recorded at 4.6% and for job changers at 6.5%, slightly down from the previous gains of 4.7% and 6.7% respectively.
Signs Of Resilience In Hiring
This data suggests a rebound from February’s low readings, with no clear signs of layoffs linked to policy uncertainty outside the government sector. Overall, the results indicate a positive trend in hiring across various sectors.
That initial section presents a snapshot of March’s employment report, highlighting a stronger-than-expected pace of job additions in the US private sector. Specifically, it shows that employment climbed more than forecasted, hinting at underlying resilience in business hiring even as wage growth edged slightly lower. Manufacturing and construction played a smaller part than they did the month before, while jobs came in force through services—from education to healthcare. Pay figures for those switching or retaining their roles ticked down—but remained elevated by historical standards. The smaller decline in wages compared to previous periods suggests wage-sensitive areas of the economy remain active even as hiring conditions tighten.
In the context of rate speculation, the jobs number above consensus draws attention. Especially as the adjustment to February’s figure was higher, it removes some of the softness that previously suggested a cooling period. The revisions tend to shift investor expectations, as backward-looking data remaining firm implies policymakers may not see a compelling case for easing.
The pullback in pay gains—though marginal—won’t be ignored. Analysts will notice the deceleration in wage pressure, which, if extended, removes some of the inflationary momentum. But the current level is still above 4 percent, which leaves room for policymakers to remain cautious. We’d argue that with wage growth for movers still hovering above six percent, labour scarcity isn’t receding rapidly. More time is needed before any material disinflation can be assumed simply from employment shifts.
Divergence In Sector Momentum
We’re also mindful of the disconnect between sector activity. Goods-producing added fewer posts than the prior month, which may reflect hesitation amongst capital-intensive firms. Services rebounding sharply paints job creation as being fuelled by consumer activity—and highlights differing performance by segment. Derivatives desks should consider whether this might reflect a more durable transition into a services-driven period, or if it’s a brief reprieve from weakness elsewhere.
It’s worth questioning the implications from a volatility standpoint. Equities tend to respond favourably to upward revisions and over-performance in employment, though if this continues on a tight labour base, it forces expectations of later policy loosening. That makes 2-year yields fairly responsive in the short term—and positions sensitive to forward guidance susceptible to sharper swings. Faded pay growth won’t be enough on its own to trigger dovish bets.
Week ahead, price action in rates could remain less predictable. If traders assumed payrolls would remain subdued, some positioning may already be mismatched to the stronger data cycle. That opens the field to shifted expectations—a modest repricing of cuts—and while dollar strength could be limited, we see room for intraday moves to exaggerate as traders square positions.
Lastly, the revised February figures cannot be ignored for trend assessment. Any view based on previously reported softness will now need recalibration. It implies momentum didn’t erode as much as it seemed, raising the floor for how the labour story is interpreted with each upcoming print.
