AUD/JPY fell sharply to the 88.60 area on Friday, declining over 4% in a day. This represents one of the most considerable intraday drops recently, moving the pair into a mid-range zone between 87.41 and 92.64.
Technical indicators are showing a bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) provides a strong sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 25.56, approaching oversold levels.
Key Moving Averages
All key moving averages suggest continued downside. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at 93.72, the 100-day SMA at 96.42, and the 200-day SMA at 98.35, reinforcing downward pressure.
We’ve just witnessed a sharp downturn in the AUD/JPY, with the price plummeting to the 88.60 region by late Friday – a move that sliced through previous levels with little resistance. At over 4% lower on the day, this sort of drop is rarely brushed off and is one of the most forceful single-day moves we’ve tracked in recent months. The currency pair is now wedged in that broad middle range between 87.41 and 92.64, standing closer to the base of that corridor than it has for some time.
Technically speaking, everything leans to the downside. The MACD, widely viewed as reliable for gauging momentum, has firmly crossed into negative territory. It’s not a subtle hint; it’s an outright sell signal. Overlay this with the RSI – currently under 26 – and you’ve got a market approaching classic oversold conditions. However, an oversold reading does not imply a stable floor. That’s a misstep many make when looking at momentum tools in isolation.
Looking at the SMAs, there’s a clear trend spreading across short, intermediate, and long horizons. The 20-day sits well above at 93.72, while the 100 and 200-day lines are even further off. We view this as mounting directional weight – the divergence between price and these averages reflects the growing separation from recent equilibrium levels. The fact these lines haven’t flattened out either is telling; we’re not in a drift, we’re in a slide.
Potential Support Levels
Over the next few sessions, we’re watching for any consolidation near current levels or a retest of support near 87.41. If that base cracks, historical bid interest around the 85 handle becomes more relevant. There’s little on the chart to suggest buyers are prepared to step in forcefully yet, and unless new macro drivers emerge, sellers remain in control.
Volume profiles and options positioning over the past week also show a tilt toward downside hedging, which further aligns with the price action. From our side, that shift is worth monitoring for signs of capitulation or positioning imbalance.
With volatility ticking higher and key technicals still pointing downward, this is not the moment to chase against the move. Patience remains warranted until meaningful signals – either in volume, price structure, or sentiment metrics – start to shift. Until that happens, risk should remain skewed to the downside.
