Average hourly earnings in the United States for March came in at 3.8% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 3.9%. This marks a continuation of trends in earnings adjustments amid evolving economic conditions.
In related currency movements, the US Dollar gained strength, impacting various pairs. Specifically, EUR/USD dropped below 1.1000, while GBP/USD retreated to around 1.2900.
Gold Prices Decline
Gold prices continued to decline, edging close to the $3,000 per troy ounce mark. Market sentiment remains influenced by recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Additionally, Maker has been trading steadily, with significant purchases from large holders. This activity may lead to notable price movements over the weekend.
The latest wage data out of the United States confirms that average hourly earnings remain under pressure, with the March reading sliding to a 3.8% increase on an annual basis, narrowly undershooting expectations. This may hint that firms, while still contending with labour shortages in select sectors, are not bidding up wages at the same pace seen during prior tightening phases. If wage growth remains subdued, this reduces upward pressure on inflation, feeding into conversations surrounding rate cuts or shifts in forward guidance.
The Dollar’s firmness in recent sessions reflects a recalculation, particularly as markets weigh softer wage growth against Powell’s more measured tone. The drop in EUR/USD beneath the 1.1000 level and the decline in GBP/USD closer to 1.2900 both underscore the strength of the greenback in reaction to shifting rate expectations. It’s not just about the numbers themselves; it’s how they’re being folded into broader policy outlooks. Traders seeking to position ahead of upcoming rate decisions may find that rate differentials are once again governing direction in the majors — any sustained move in yields or surprise commentary could skew forecasts.
Trends in Crypto and Market Strategy
We’ve seen gold slipping as well — tumbling towards the $3,000 per ounce threshold, a level once thought distant. This behaviour likely stems from reduced haven demand and resilience in the Dollar, even as inflation-adjusted returns from safe assets remain modest. A persistent drag here may lead many to reassess their long positions unless there’s a dovish pivot or a flare-up in geopolitical uncertainty.
On the crypto front, Maker’s recent volumes point to carefully timed activity among larger holders. Such consolidations often precede extended moves, especially with liquidity thinning across weekend sessions. While the asset has remained stable for now, moves of this kind suggest that order books may be absorbing fresh positioning, and if that continues, short-term price discovery could accelerate in a single direction without much warning.
From a strategy perspective, we are watching implied volatilities closely — both in fiat FX as well as across select cryptocurrencies — to gauge whether markets are underpricing the probability of sharp reactions in response to policy or data surprises. Staying attentive to positioning and how quickly these expectations are shifting will offer better odds in spotting dislocations before they gather momentum.
