Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states that the U.S. will probably not establish any trade agreements by April 9th. As a result, the retaliatory tariffs are expected to come into effect.
Bessent is associated with the Trump administration and offers insights on trade matters. However, the final decision-making authority rests with Trump.
Trade Deal Deadline
The information provided makes it rather plain: there will likely be no new trade deals established by 9 April. This pushes us closer to the implementation of retaliatory tariffs, which have been on the table for weeks. Bessent, though an informed commentator, is not steering policy alone. The judgement call sits squarely with the president.
From our point of view, this delay alters the forward-looking calculations. It introduces an added layer of certainty—not about resolution, but about timing. If there’s no path to resolution before the stated date, we are almost certainly looking at a move to harsher trade terms.
Tariffs, particularly retaliatory ones, tend to reshape the way prices move across markets. We typically see adjustments not just at the point of implementation but in anticipation. The fact that there is now a clearer window gives us something solid to model. Price reactions, volume skews, and implied volatility could gradually shift as we approach the date. Not overnight moves, but rather a drip-feed of premium on contracts sensitive to import flows and cost pass-through.
It would be a mistake to brush off Bessent’s remarks simply because he does not sign the executive orders himself. His comments can still work as early indicators of how sentiment might be framed behind the scenes. While we are not pricing sentiment alone, we do respond to how sentiment drives policy into motion.
Long Term Market Implications
What is worth watching, precisely because it won’t be moving in lock-step with the headlines, is how longer-dated contracts treat the potential for this set of policies to linger. Many in the market tend to focus too heavily on the immediate. But policy, especially around trade, almost always has second, third, and fourth-order impacts.
In the short term, front-month volatility may edge higher as the tariff date gets closer. There’s usually revaluation on commodity producer names, logistics-sensitive tickers, and anyone with asymmetrical supply chains. The nuances here matter. Traders should not treat all import-exposed names the same, because they won’t be treated the same by the tax.
Backwardation in affected assets may begin to flatten, particularly in sectors where demand destruction is delayed. That is often where option open interest begins to fatten. We’ve seen it during energy pricing adjustments tied to global shipping taxes, and similar signs may emerge again.
Bessent’s timing reference, paired with earlier remarks by others in the administration, suggests there has been at least internal consensus on pushing this timeline into April. That itself can be used to draft out expected delta paths and whether market-makers begin adjusting skew in anticipation.
Finally, what’s obvious now won’t stay visible for long. Once the date gets near, hedging becomes more expensive, not less, and we anticipate early repricing in structures that lean on imports staying cheap and uninterrupted. Now is the slope. The peak comes next.
