Bitcoin showed a potential change in its correlation with traditional assets, rallying despite a down day for the Nasdaq. This marks a shift in a trend that has prevailed for the past two years.

The momentum continued today, accompanied by a rebound in risk assets. While technical indicators are currently more favourable, the real challenge will be observing Bitcoin’s performance during future ‘sell America’ trades.

This recent behaviour suggests that Bitcoin may be carving its own path independent of traditional market influences. Observing its trajectory during high pressure market scenarios will provide further insights.

That Bitcoin has rallied while the Nasdaq slipped suggests something not seen much in recent memory: a decoupling. For nearly two years, it’s behaved more like a tech stock than anything resembling a hedge. Lately, though, this connection appears to be loosening. The asset moved higher even as other corners of the market saw selling. That’s a marked change.

In the days that followed, other risk assets joined in the recovery, but what stood out was how fast the reaction came from Bitcoin. Normally, it would lag a bit or move in sympathy. This time, the response was more immediate, as if it were acting from a different set of instructions. Traders accustomed to watching equities for cues may need to rethink their approach.

The technicals have turned more supportive. Momentum gauges like RSI and trending averages are no longer pointing to exhaustion. That helps, of course, but indicators alone aren’t the whole picture—they rarely tell us much when news flow or broad sentiment turns against risk. What really matters is how price holds up if we see another aggressive move into the dollar, or a rush out of stocks. The so-called ‘sell America’ days are still the best stress tests.

We’ve seen before how linkages can snap back suddenly. In practice, that’s meant a rush of correlation returning just when people start to act as if it’s gone for good. But if past behaviour doesn’t immediately reassert itself, volatility will likely come not just from direction, but from timing—because the usual reflexes may not work like they used to.

Cosgrove flagged this dislocation earlier in the month, tying it to positioning in futures. He observed that short covering, combined with lighter leverage in altcoins, has led to less spillover. When the liquidation counts are lower, it quiets the chain reactions that tend to bring things down together. That might be what’s giving the appearance of independence.

From a strategy point of view, if we take the disconnect at face value, it’s the noisy weeks that offer the clearer tells. If Bitcoin starts to build traction while others fall, that’s not just narrative—it’s action. We should watch where the capital flows when tensions rise, rather than calm periods when correlations tend to flatter.

Traders like Bellman have noted that volatility premia have started to shift accordingly. The skew in options has edged away from the aggressive downside hedging that once dominated sentiment. That shift tells us more than spot price alone. It hints that expectations have changed about where stress will show up—and perhaps, what will lead during it.

With that in mind, shorter-dated expiries are still trading actively, but without the same bid for protection that’s usually there before indexes roll over. That creates opportunities, naturally, especially when traders assume reflexive hedging from macro shops that may no longer be engaged.

We’re seeing funding rates behave differently too—more balanced, not the stretched longs or crowded shorts. That kind of order tends to precede repricing moves rather than liquidations. It also suggests that traders are acting tactically again, rather than leaning too hard in any direction.

This sort of regime shift doesn’t mean all bets are off, but it does mean the playbook needs redrafting. We can’t assume behaviour from 2022 or even early 2023 will apply here. At the very least, it seems that Bitcoin is being judged less reactively, and perhaps being used more selectively—especially on days when headline risk is highest and correlations are weakest.

For us, that means being more efficient with data, more aware of positioning, and more willing to reassess mid-trade. Dogs may not bark the same way in these conditions. Watching the quiet sessions might tell us less than watching the ones where things break.