Brazil’s industrial output for February registered at 1.5% year-on-year, falling short of the anticipated 2.3%. This figure indicates a slowdown compared to expectations.
U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to announce reciprocal tariffs on his designated “Liberation Day.” The announcement is expected to heighten market volatility due to concerns regarding potential negative effects on economic growth and inflation.
Euro Currency Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is poised to test the 1.0900 level, following gains driven by a weaker dollar and possible EU measures in response to these tariffs. Meanwhile, gold prices have stabilised around $3,120, recovering from a recent high of $3,150.
Grayscale has introduced Bitcoin options-focused ETFs aimed at income generation, further diversifying investment opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
The industrial production data from Brazil painted a somewhat softer picture than markets would have liked, with output climbing just 1.5% over the past year in February. That’s well off the 2.3% that had been pencilled in. Such missed expectations often ripple into risk positioning more broadly, as they draw into question both regional momentum and any assumptions around external demand linked to commodities. In our view, this leaves some room for hesitation among those positioning around Latin American exposure, particularly within cyclical sectors.
Across the Atlantic, Trump’s stated plans for reciprocal tariffs—timed to coincide with what he’s calling “Liberation Day”—have already introduced a layer of uncertainty that’s being priced into futures. Although the full details remain to be released, the anticipated reaction from major trading partners is likely to filter through asset classes unevenly, especially where large cross-border supply chains are involved. Inflation expectations may drift upward on the back of input cost concerns, but it’s the threat to confidence that could exert a heavier pull on risk appetite near-term.
Digital Assets And Market Structure
Over in currencies, the euro has been enjoying some tailwinds. The dollar’s retreat—partially triggered by rate repricing and a less aggressive Fed tone—has opened up space for EUR/USD to approach the 1.0900 threshold. Earlier stress over fragmentation within the eurozone seems to be giving way to a more measured outlook, as some on the continent hint at direct responses to the growing threat of protectionism. For now, this leaves pairs like EUR/USD in tighter focus, especially as positioning adjusts around the 1.0900 pivot.
Gold, after briefly touching $3,150, has settled closer to $3,120. The extreme highs were never likely to hold for long given how quickly they materialised. That pullback doesn’t suggest weakness per se, but rather that enthusiasm got momentarily ahead of itself. With geopolitical concerns unresolved and rate projections still fluid, safe-haven flows aren’t drying up entirely. However, compression in volatility around this level is noteworthy, especially for those managing short-term hedges or building convexity into inflation overlays.
On a different front, Grayscale’s move towards Bitcoin options with a tilt toward income generation stands out, particularly in terms of structure. Such vehicles may appeal to those seeking exposure without the direct volatility tied to spot movements. We view it as a broadening of the crypto derivatives suite and a sign of normalisation within that asset class. Options-linked strategies like these often appeal to those running premium-selling models or delta-neutral setups, and their emergence could reinforce volumes in underlying crypto volatility markets over the coming weeks.
Looking forward, shifts in global trade rhetoric and the ongoing recalibration of policy expectations provide a firm basis for tactical positioning. As volatility clusters begin to emerge across asset types—from FX to digital currencies—it will be essential to monitor how these price points develop relative to sentiment-focused indicators. Markets are tilting between growth uncertainty and redefined risk tolerance; identifying which instruments are absorbing that tension more efficiently will guide better setup selection through quarter-end adjustments.
