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The USDCAD exchange rate is showing upward momentum, breaking above the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. A strong support zone was established near the 100-day moving average at 1.4269, leading to a rebound.
Buyers are currently targeting the resistance range of 1.4448–1.4471, which has been a barrier since January. Momentum could increase if prices breach this level.
Potential Market Shift Below Support
On the downside, a drop below the 100-bar MA at 1.4247 may shift market sentiment negatively. Key support levels include 1.4318 and 1.4344, with resistance at 1.4403 and 1.4525.
What the existing content outlines is fairly straightforward: price action on the USDCAD pair is pushing higher, propelled by a recovery off a longer-term average. We’ve seen a shift in favour of buyers after a bounce near 1.4269, which aligns neatly with the 100-day moving average. Shorter-term levels, like the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, have now been cleared. By moving above those, it’s not just a case of upside momentum—it also sheds earlier hesitations traders may have had.
The current focus is a range between 1.4448 and 1.4471. It hasn’t been broken since the start of the year. Price has approached this zone before but failed to force a clean break. So the fact that we’re nearing it again, with this kind of strength, does change the tone. A push through that range, ideally on heavier volume and without hesitation, tends to invite follow-through buying. That’s something we watch not over hours, but days. If this resistance gives way, it would be sensible to expect attention to rotate toward the next clear marker, which now sits at 1.4525.
Nevertheless, measuring strength also means keeping a close eye on what fails. A downside move—particularly one that drags back below the 100-bar moving average at 1.4247—would immediately weaken the current setup. It would suggest that bulls backed off too soon, before regaining ground convincingly.
Key Decision Zone Ahead
In that case, the first level that might catch price is 1.4344, a point that’s reinforced by previous balancing around it. Failing there, attention turns lower to 1.4318, where repeated reactions occurred in previous phases. Either of these could act as short-term stalling points for sell-side pressure.
From a broader position-taking perspective, the recent rally needs to be handled with some caution unless 1.4471 gives way clearly and without reversal. We’re watching for confirmation—not just a touch of that level but what happens just after. Price that flicks against a level briefly tells far less than whether it can stay there and attract new participants.
As for momentum, we’re building strength, that’s clear—but strength often invites testing. If sellers step in near the upper resistance, it’s how well buyers absorb that, without losing composure beneath 1.4403, that will matter. Responses at and near that level could give early signs of possible continuation or failure.
The conditions are in place now for sharper movement. Whether it will extend or fade will depend less on headlines and more on how technical levels, particularly 1.4448 to 1.4471, behave under increased participation. We prefer to wait for clarity there before making position adjustments. The price still holds too near familiar resistance to call it a clean break.
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