CFTC reports that the net positions for the S&P 500 remain unchanged at $-19,000. Gold is stabilising near $3,250, driven by safe-haven demand and concerns over trade wars, while the US Dollar is trading near three-year lows.
The EUR/USD pair has retreated towards 1.1300 after reaching a multi-month peak at 1.1473. GBP/USD has also receded to the 1.3050 area due to ongoing trade tensions and weak US Producer Price data.
Crypto Market Stabilisation
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano show signs of stabilisation, with the crypto market capitalisation around $2.69 trillion. Market sentiment remains cautious as recession concerns persist alongside trade war developments.
Reading the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, we can see that large speculative traders haven’t made any noticeable changes to their net S&P 500 futures positions, which still sit at a net short of $19,000 contracts. That tells us these traders likely remain unwilling to adopt outright bullish stances, perhaps preferring to sit tight while broader macro uncertainties continue to create discomfort. The absence of change speaks volumes — it’s often not what’s added or removed, but what’s held back that tells the real story.
Gold continues to hover close to the $3,250 range, supported by what appears to be a flight to safety. Its recent price stability reflects persistent nerves about trade-related frictions spilling over into broader economic weakness. Concerns here are not just about tariffs or border headlines — they’re about what deteriorating trade conditions might eventually do to manufacturing pipelines and global investment decisions. In times like these, gold doesn’t need dramatic headlines to climb. Quiet concern is more than enough.
The US Dollar, meanwhile, stays weighed down near the lowest levels since early 2021. There’s a cluster of reasons behind this, not least the softening seen in domestic inflation indicators and underwhelming producer price data. When inflation loses its bite, expectations for heavy-handed central bank action often scale back. That narrative is finding support in the bond market, where yields refuse to climb with any conviction.
On the FX front, the EUR/USD pair has backed off its recent high just under 1.1500. Its pullback to the 1.1300 region isn’t cause for alarm on its own, but it does signal the rally might have been stretched. There’s an understandable hesitancy among traders to extend euro gains much further without fresh data or policy updates. Similarly, sterling’s drift lower to the mid-1.30s against the dollar mirrors the broader fading appetite for risk, especially as trade disputes keep pushing uncertainty into the pricing.
Market Watchfulness
Perhaps more telling is the behaviour of crypto assets. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and Dogecoin haven’t surged or dived but rather found a rhythm. Stabilisation doesn’t mean recovery – at least not yet – but it does suggest sellers are no longer in control. With market capitalisation holding above $2.6 trillion, there’s evidently some foundational support beneath digital assets, even if conviction among buyers isn’t yet fully restored. We might be watching money that had previously fled equities now exploring alternative stores of value, albeit cautiously.
For our own part, we’ve noticed that none of the usual narratives – whether around traditional markets or newer digital ones – seem to dominate. Instead, what’s emerging is a kind of watchfulness. The sense is that full-on positioning, either one way or the other, is being delayed until the next clear signal emerges — whether through economic releases or shifts in trade policy rhetoric.
With that in mind, short-term positional activity may remain light, and strategies that lean towards responsive rather than anticipatory trading might see better outcomes. The priority here is to stay nimble, avoid large directional bets in the absence of follow-through, and remain attentive to how futures, forex, and crypto markets respond to headline risk more than headline content. It’s that reaction — not the news itself — that might give us the more actionable cues.
