March data from the World Gold Council indicates strong inflows into gold ETFs, with net inflows of 92 tons, similar to February’s figures. This increase is attributed to rising gold prices and uncertainty around US tariff policies.
During the first quarter, gold ETF holdings grew by 226 tons, marking the largest quarterly rise in three years. US-listed ETFs recorded the highest inflows, while European and Asian markets also saw increases.
Total Gold ETF Holdings
Total gold ETF holdings reached 3,445 tons, the highest since May 2023, with assets under management at a record USD 345.4 billion. The first quarter saw a 19% rise in gold prices, largely driven by ETF demand.
These figures from the World Gold Council make it clear that institutional activity around gold has accelerated swiftly since the start of the year. In March alone, ETFs brought in 92 tons net, which continues the strong pace set in February. That sustained demand from investors comes at a time when bullion prices have continued trending upward—up 19% just in the first quarter—implying that traders are buying not only on momentum, but on larger directional views that now extend well beyond short-term positioning.
The 226-ton increase in ETF holdings over the quarter is the most substantial in over three years, and the surge in assets under management to USD 345.4 billion sharpens that point. Given that US-listed ETFs accounted for the largest slice of this move, we might infer that American investors are leaning more heavily into gold exposure despite—or perhaps because of—ambiguous signals from policymakers and continuing questions around trade levies.
Holdings across the globe rose in tandem, though more modestly in Europe and Asia. Global positioning hit 3,445 tons by the end of March, the highest level since May last year. That recovery in holdings gives a mirror to wider market sentiment: gold is being treated less as an inert asset and more as an insurance policy, particularly by those who are likely comprising the bulk of ETF flows.
Directional Momentum Trades
For traders operating in the derivative markets, this kind of heavy accumulation through ETF products can feed into more directional momentum trades in futures and options. We’ve already started to note that open interest in gold call options has been rising consistently since mid-February, paired with an uptick in volatility skew favouring the upside. That profile tends to emerge when positioning gets more asymmetric—people are buying into the possibility of further price acceleration rather than just hedging with vanilla structures.
With flows skewing towards one side, it’s tempting to chase higher prices, but we’re also seeing gold pricing increasingly decouple from interest rate expectations, which had previously provided a clearer anchor for positioning. That dislocation could invite sharper price swings on macro news that typically wouldn’t hold this much weight. Premiums for upside breakouts are already rich, and though implied vol remains below historic extremes, the build-up of long gamma exposures could trigger forced hedging if spot breaks above nearby resistance levels again.
In this climate, risk management becomes less about pure directional bias and more about agility. Timing and sizing of trades take precedence, especially because ETFs, by their nature, cannot hedge intraday exposures or react to liquidity vacuums. That means derivative markets are left to pick up the price discovery function during periods of dislocation, which could actually intensify intra-session ranges.
Traders may wish to reassess theta exposure on structured positions that benefit from quiet conditions. The behaviour of both institutional ETF flows and retail tailwinds suggest more price extension is on the table, but it’s the path—rather than the destination—that could complicate things. Moreover, futures curves have started to show signs of slight backwardation in some contracts, which often points to tightness in supply or elevated spot demand. Either scenario lends support to short-dated tactical strategies over passive long gamma setups.
Ultimately, attention should shift towards granularity rather than broad views—examining divergences between ETF buying patterns and actual futures positioning could reveal when moves are being led by the slower money. And when that divergence widens, there’s usually an ensuing adjustment in options markets. We should keep that in view as volatility surfaces begin to steepen again.
