Tesla’s stock experienced volatility as first-quarter deliveries were reported at 336,681, falling short of the expected 377,000. This figure marks a 13% decline year-on-year and a 32% drop quarter-on-quarter, leading to an initial decline of over 6%.
However, heavy buying pushed the stock above $282, aided by President Trump’s announcement regarding Elon Musk stepping back from his government role. The broader market also improved, spurred by a stronger-than-expected March ADP Employment Change figure of 155,000, exceeding the 105,000 estimate.
Concerns About Global Demand
Concerns about demand, particularly in China and Europe, have emerged, contributing to the subdued delivery forecast for the remaining quarters. Market analysts have expressed concerns, with Tesla facing pressures from rising competition and margin strain.
Despite the struggles, the stock exhibited some technical recovery, needing to reach $288 to turn around its performance trend. Key support levels are at $265 and $222, with a break of the 50-day moving average critical for overcoming current challenges.
That recent delivery miss set a clear tone. We saw the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines sharpen the focus on where demand may be thinning, particularly in overseas markets. It’s hard to ignore what a 13% annual drop signals when measured against projections that were already dialled back. The 32% quarterly contraction brought further weight, inviting more scrutiny onto product cycles and regional performance.
The market’s knee-jerk reaction—selling off at the open—was fairly straightforward. But the afternoon rebound told a different story. It wasn’t just technical covering; reactions to political narratives seemed to play their part. Trump’s disclosure surrounding Musk’s role clearly swayed sentiment. Few announcements move price like a potential shift in personal influence, particularly when it concerns someone so heavily linked with corporate identity.
Macro Trends Support Rebound
More broadly, the surprising lift in ADP job numbers brought life back across indices. We saw better-than-forecast hiring signal resilience in labour conditions, narrowing the probability that major consumption or investment slowdowns are around the corner. At least in the short term. That tighter-than-expected economic data forced some recalibration of recession bets and bolstered forward-looking equity flows, helping tech tick higher alongside cyclicals.
Still, even with the rebound, Tesla’s near-term future rests heavily on whether it can reclaim and hold technical convictions. We’re watching that $288 price with interest—it’s not just a psychological milestone, but a level that reflects whether confidence is returning post-report. Until that’s reached convincingly, the undertone remains defensive.
Now, support around $265 looks closely contested. If broader flows falter or headlines out of China return negative, downside to $222 might attract hedging or shorter-term directional shifts. We’d expect meaningful put volume to extend through those levels if a clear breach occurred, particularly as we’ve seen a build-up in shorter-expiry open interest floating in those strikes recently.
One item to note—the 50-day moving average remains under pressure. Bearish sentiment tends to stick when traditional support structures become resistance, especially when underlying delivery performance draws more questions than answers. A single bounce above isn’t enough. We’d want to see consecutive daily closes with expanding volume before we move to a different risk setting.
From here, whether the momentum continues likely hinges not on fresh updates from the company itself, but on sector-wide appetite and macro response. That means keeping a close eye on broad tech beta markers and watching if traders rotate into or away from high-duration names.
