Technically, the price has slid beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average around $33.35, indicating a bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is nearing 40.00, with support at the February 28 low of $30.82 and resistance near the October 22 high of $34.87.
Technical Indicators Show Bearish Momentum
Silver serves as a medium of exchange and is commonly traded, despite being less popular than Gold. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, US Dollar fluctuations, and industrial demand can significantly affect Silver prices, with strong demand from sectors like electronics and solar energy being key considerations.
The Gold/Silver ratio may help investors assess the valuation between the two metals, with a high ratio indicating that Silver may be undervalued. Silver typically follows Gold price movements, as both assets are viewed as safe havens during economic uncertainty.
What’s clear here is that we’re beginning to see directional weakness return, and it’s not just about the metal in isolation—this is part of a wider set of triggers. The sharp retreat in Silver, triggered by new US import tariffs and exacerbated by global industrial contraction risks, speaks to a convergence of both monetary and real-economy forces. With the US administration setting a fresh 34% duty on Chinese imports, the knock-on effect is immediate: manufacturing costs rise, and input demand decelerates. Since Silver feeds directly into that pipeline—as a critical component in electronics, solar panels, and medical technology—lower usage becomes a natural consequence.
Traders who rely heavily on trend-following models would have noted with interest that prices dipped below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average. When that type of short-term support no longer holds, the market tends to test nearby lows, and we’ve now got previous support hovering at $30.82. From our perspective, that level is within reach unless we see a material shift in fiscal recalibration or liquidity expectations. Longs built around $33.00 or higher might already be feeling pressure and could be forced to unwind their positions if momentum doesn’t reverse.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s continuing decline—driven by cooling economic data—has not been enough to provide counterbalance support for Silver, which sometimes benefits from a weaker greenback. This tells us that Silver’s industrial qualities are being weighed more heavily than its role as a protective asset during economic distress periods. The Dollar Index edging down to its lowest in half a year hints at cracks in domestic demand or employment resilience. This becomes all the more relevant when considering the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls release. If jobs prints come in soft, it increases the probability that central bank policymakers might opt for cuts or at least pause rate hikes further—a development that might usually lift metals. But in this case, structural demand weakness appears to be leading the narrative.
Industrial Demand Outweighs Safe Haven Appeal
Structurally, the 14-day RSI nearing 40 isn’t extreme but leans bearish. This suggests there’s selling momentum building rather than waning. Momentum-driven strategies might sit pat until that RSI approaches 30 or until there are signs of a short-term bottom. Options markets have already begun widening implied volatility gaps between puts and calls—a subtle sign that desks are gradually positioning portfolios to account for downside skew.
We’re not ignoring the valuation lens either. The Gold/Silver ratio stands as an analytical tool, showing us how one metal trades relative to another. In moments like this—especially with Silver correcting more sharply than Gold—the ratio will likely expand, giving macro desks additional data for mean reversion strategies. However, the discount can persist for weeks when broader asset rotation is at play, so timing entries warrants care.
Looking into the near term, don’t expect immediate recovery efforts to hold without help from either inflation reacceleration or clear macro policy catalysts. With the industrial sector under compression and technical levels skewing bearish, we’d expect volatility to persist, particularly around jobs data releases and updates from the Federal Open Market Committee. For directional bets, aligning closely with real-time data surprise indices may offer the best guidance on when to redeploy exposure on either side of the tape.
