EURUSD declined today, breaking below yesterday’s low and falling to 1.0889, which tested the 61.8% retracement level from the March to April high. This prompted a slight rebound as buyers responded to the Fibonacci support.
Today’s high reached just below the 38.2% retracement at 1.0987, which serves as resistance. The 50% midpoint of the recent range at 1.0954 creates another resistance level, and a move above these would shift the bias towards buyers.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The 61.8% level at 1.0889 is a key support. A drop below this would target the 4-hour chart’s 100-bar moving average at 1.08684, which formerly acted as resistance.
Further downside targets include the 200-bar moving average at 1.07596 and the swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767. Below these levels, the 200-day moving average at 1.0735 is an important support that had previously held on March 27.
Key levels to watch include resistance at 1.0954 and 1.0987, with support at 1.08684, the swing area, and 1.0735. The bias remains neutral-to-bearish below 1.0954 and bearish below 1.08684.
The original update describes how EURUSD moved lower, breaking through a level that had previously held firm. Specifically, the fall to 1.0889 placed it at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, an area many view as the edge between recovery and deeper selling. That level attracted buying, prompting a small push higher. Prices managed to climb back towards 1.0987, just below the 38.2% retracement, which acted as resistance. Along the route, the midpoint of the retracement range at 1.0954 also held, so momentum towards the upside has not resumed meaningfully. The short-term outlook tilts negative while these ceilings remain firmly above.
Trading Strategy Considerations
If it breaches 1.0889 again on the downside, it risks accelerating. The next relevant marker in that direction is the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart around 1.08684—this line had beaten bulls before, reinforcing its importance now. Beneath that, attention shifts further down to the cluster between 1.07609 and 1.07767, followed by the 200-day average at 1.0735, a floor that halted a descent back in March. These are not mere reference points; they are levels where momentum could either weaken or intensify.
Now, for those who trade derivatives around these price movements, timing and reaction speed matter more than ever. As long as price sits beneath the 1.0954 midpoint and fails to retake it, buyers might lack the footing to gain control. Short entries have shown favourable setups below that line, especially when there’s confirmation via a failed retest. When price attempts to rally back to that boundary but stalls, it gives us a firmer framework to consider fading strength.
If instead, we see a measured rise that holds above 1.0954 and pushes through 1.0987 with volume, that opens the door for a temporary shift. But as things stand, even bounces are stalling earlier, with no higher highs forming. That’s often telling.
Support near 1.08684 could again become active—we watch it closely. If broken, we then target the broader range lows around 1.07596 and the swing band just above. A breach of that area, followed by a daily close beneath the 200-day line, would embolden the next leg down, with sellers likely doubling interest in further breakout trades.
We’ve reached a point where fewer trades may be needed, but better trades make more difference. There’s no real need to stretch for entries—just allow the levels to be tested and verify the reaction. The market’s memory is concentrated in those zones; traders are simply responding accordingly, and we should do the same.
