In February, JOLTs job openings totalled 7.568 million, lower than the estimated 7.616 million, and down from a revised figure of 7.762 million the previous month. Year-on-year, job openings fell by 877,000, with a job openings rate of 4.5%.
The quits rate decreased to 2.0% from 2.1% last month, while the vacancy rate was 4.5%, revised up from 4.6% but down from 4.7%. Hires remained steady at 5.4 million with a hires rate of 3.4%, showing no changes across industries.
Total Separations Data Holds Steady
Total separations held at 5.3 million, with a separations rate of 3.3%. Quits stood at 3.2 million, unchanged month-on-month but down by 273,000 year-on-year.
Layoffs and discharges also remained at 1.8 million, maintaining a rate of 1.1%. In several sectors, there were increases in employment, particularly in state and local education and federal government roles.
The data illustrates a labour market that has softened, but not abruptly. Openings have declined meaningfully compared to the same point a year ago, marking a loss of momentum with less urgency from employers to fill roles. A decrease of nearly 900,000 openings in a single year suggests employer confidence has eroded without tipping into broad-based retrenchment.
What stands out is the reduction in the quits rate. People tend to leave their jobs willingly when they feel another opportunity lies just around the corner—when the economic backdrop gives them the confidence to chase better prospects. In this case, a fall from 2.1% to 2.0% may sound minor, but it points to a decline in optimism among workers. They’re more cautious now, staying put and waiting things through. That’s not something visible in one-off numbers—it’s a sentiment shift.
Labour Market Signals Mixed Momentum
With hires not moving at all, and separations holding steady, it becomes clear the jobs market is no longer running hot. There’s no rotation occurring between sectors. Even those industries that usually act as shock absorbers—like hospitality or retail—aren’t showing net hiring swings. That tells us companies aren’t scaling up in anticipation of further growth.
Now, considering total separations sitting comfortably at 5.3 million with a flat year-on-year layoff count, we don’t see employers panicking. That kind of stability in layoffs—steady at 1.8 million—means this isn’t recessionary pressure yet. It’s restraint, not risk aversion. Employers may be less inclined to hire, but they’re not reducing headcounts aggressively. This mirrors earlier economic data showing solid output without the inflation-driven tightness we’ve seen before.
Increased hiring in state and local education, alongside federal government gains, points to the public sector helping to balance out some of the cooling in other areas. These roles tend to be more stable across the cycle and suggest that public budgets, so far, remain supportive.
So what does this mean moving forward? Volatility in interest rate expectations will remain. If the labour market were collapsing, the path for rate cuts would be clear. But it isn’t. Instead, we’re looking at a gradual adjustment. That’s what we must watch.
Rate-sensitive instruments may continue to reprice with modest headlines. We are now trading on the margins—each minor adjustment in job figures carries an outsized reaction. Timing becomes paramount. Caution is warranted especially during lower conviction positioning, where liquidity can distort short-term price movements.
The incoming data cycle sits uphill from here. Every upcoming release will be weighed for continued signs of cooling without collapse. That tension—slower momentum but no contraction—will drive reversals. If separations or quits show another step down, that supports stable policy rates for longer.
We keep our focus tight. Strategies that rely on directional bias need to be adjusted regularly. Watch for early signals in sectoral hiring: education and government add detail but are not bellwethers. Instead, the compression in quits and unchanged layoffs define risk appetite. The slower pace allows for tactical positioning, though the zone between stability and softness is narrowing.
