Analyst Predictions For Interest Rates
Gold prices rebounded from a support level at $2,955, moving above $3,010 with an intraday increase of nearly 1%. Market conditions suggest a preference for Gold amid concerns about stagflation and recession, alongside rising tariffs.
The price of Gold currently exceeds $3,000, following a recent drop in equities. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have intensified, contributing to this fluctuation, especially with tariffs being threatened by the US.
Analysts noted that the US yield curve has become volatile, with predictions of up to five interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by 2025. As trade negotiations advance, 70 countries have sought discussions with the US, although tariffs will remain effective during this period.
New data from Gold Road Resources indicates potential for more recoverable Gold than initially estimated, undermining a $3.3 billion takeover bid from a joint venture partner. The chances of a Federal interest rate cut in May have decreased to 31.7%, while June shows a 96.9% probability of a cut.
Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven, but recent market pressures could hinder its recovery towards the all-time high of $3,167. Key resistance levels include $3,040 and $3,057, while support is centred around the $3,000 mark and $2,955.
The Fed funds rate is a key benchmark, impacting borrowing costs and investment decisions. Higher interest rates generally decrease Gold’s attractiveness compared to interest-bearing investments.
Tensions Between Global Powers
We’ve witnessed Gold prices lifting off from their floor at $2,955, regaining ground to clear the $3,010 threshold with an almost 1% move on the day. That sort of bounce suggests we’re not alone in interpreting defensive positioning creeping in. With the S&P pulling back and stagflation whispers echoing through the macro data, there’s a tilt happening – away from equities, and toward what traders might view as value-preserving exposure.
This recent acceleration in Gold has also arrived amid a sharpening of tensions between two global giants. Washington’s saber-rattling on trade restrictions isn’t background noise anymore. Though the formal negotiations have brought 70 nations to the table, those tariffs are staying—for now. That backdrop adds friction to markets and increases uncertainty on growth and corporate margins, both of which tend to dampen sentiment toward risk assets. From there, the classic response: move into stores of value.
We find the activity in the US bond market just as telling. What’s happening with the yield curve is far from academic—it’s a response to a shift in short- and long-term inflation expectations, and reflects where markets see the real economy heading. Multiple rate cuts priced in by 2025—possibly as many as five—show us that investors are preparing for the Fed to step in with greater stimulus. But not immediately. The odds of a May cut have dwindled to about a third. June, however, sits at over 96%, which is close to baked in.
That timing discrepancy has become a lever. It’s applying force on rate-sensitive instruments like Gold, which doesn’t earn yield itself. When monetary policy tightens or is expected to stay restrictive, the opportunity cost for holding Gold increases. But when cuts are on the cards, particularly quick ones, that cost falls. So we stay watchful there.
Meanwhile, news from the mining sector brings another angle. Revised resource estimates suggest more recoverable Gold from existing Australian assets, which disrupted takeover talks in a major deal. For now, the corporate side of the commodity market appears more than a transactional footnote—it’s feeding into price expectations too, especially as deals get reassessed amid changes in resource forecasts.
Current price action suggests the metal could struggle near resistance at $3,040 and again at $3,057, levels where we’ve previously seen liquidity thin and selling pressure quietly step in. But each clean test of $3,000 has drawn fresh buyers. With that in mind, $2,955 remains the lower bound we keep in sight—recent activity around that level tells us plenty of resting interest remains.
From our point of view, it’s not just the size of the moves but their timing relative to inflation prints, Fed minutes, and any trade developments that may matter most in the short term. The Fed funds rate, serving as a barometer of economic direction, remains the key line to watch—not only because of how it moves capital between assets, but because it directly shapes expectations. When debt instruments start yielding less, Gold often edges back into focus. Not on sentiment alone, but on yield mechanics that move institutional flows.
So, as things stand, holding onto a clear framework of resistance and support lines, with a sharp eye on rate path pricing, remains our method of choice. Discretion lies in reading the sharp turns, not chasing directional bets. In markets where narrative shifts weekly, we’ll continue weighing probability against positioning, rather than headlines.
