USD/JPY is currently trading at 149.60, influenced by safe-haven demand and tariffs impacting the Japanese yen. Analysts suggest that the pair will likely continue experiencing two-way trades, with support levels at 149.10/20, 148.70, and 147.
Resistance is noted at 151.20/50 and 153. The tariffs imposed by the US on Japan include over 20% on certain agricultural products and 30% on leather shoes. There are discussions about possible production adjustments in Japan, but uncertainty remains. The yen may strengthen in risk-off scenarios if Japan is exempt from tariffs.
Tariffs And Safe Haven Flows
Currently hovering around 149.60, the USD/JPY remains sensitive to external pressures, tethered loosely by both trade policy shifts and broader risk sentiment. There’s been a noticeable uptick in demand for traditional safe havens, pulling the yen into focus, albeit not strongly enough to offset the weight of ongoing tariff concerns. These levies—some north of 20% on select farm goods, and others reaching up to 30% on footwear—are not without consequences. They feed into broader industrial adjustments that might soon take place in Japan, though those conversations appear stuck in early stages.
Support for the pair appears firm at three distinct levels—first around the 149.10 region, then at 148.70, and further down at 147. These zones should be treated as natural checkpoints, especially for those who lean towards range trading or are scaling into position trades. It’s not unusual to expect price action to react carefully near these points. Any move lower would need fresh catalysts, particularly from either the trade front or larger-scale shifts in global money flows.
Resistance, on the other hand, stands less immediate but carries weight. It’s positioned around 151.20, with a second barrier closer to 153. Breaking through these levels would likely require either a swing back into a strong-risk appetite or a more hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Neither of these is entirely off the table, but neither look imminent either.
Market Reaction And Trading Strategy
The latest rhetoric surrounding exemptions from tariffs could shift the balance momentarily, especially if Japan finds itself spared in future phases. Under those terms, we would likely see the yen strengthen, particularly if broader markets drift towards a more defensive posture. But that support may remain shallow, unless coupled with clearer action from Tokyo’s policymakers.
In the meantime, the likelihood of two-way flows remains high. This isn’t the kind of environment where carrying directional exposure without a re-evaluation plan would serve well. For short-term positioning, it’s worth watching for false breakouts near those defined support zones, while exercising restraint near resistance layers unless volume or momentum confirms the move. Initiating trades in the middle of the range lends less reward unless volatility climbs sharply.
With the BOJ still relatively quiet and macro factors clouded by trade uncertainties, action around option expiries may offer some clarity, especially if they cluster near these key levels. There’s room still for participants to fade strength or weakness near range extremes, but faster reactions will be needed in response to fresh headlines. It’s a space that prefers preparation to prediction.
