The price of gold has risen for three consecutive weeks, exceeding a topside channel trendline at $3082. Presently, gold’s price has increased nearly 100% from its low in September 2022 and is up approximately 23.46% for 2025.
This week alone, gold saw a gain of around 6.35%, marking the second-highest trading week since March 2023, when it rose by 6.5%. The lowest price this week approached the 50-day moving average at $2969.76, which is also trending upwards. A decline below this average could shift the market sentiment towards sellers in the medium term. The price peaked at $3245.45.
Market Momentum and Resistance Levels
What’s happening in the gold market is a clear move beyond mere fluctuations. The price surpassed a resistance level that had previously held as a ceiling, specifically breaking through the channel trendline at $3082. That’s not just a small technical footnote — it reflects strong momentum that’s been building for months. From the base in September 2022, when gold was nearly half of today’s price, to now, the trajectory has mostly been a one-way street. Since the start of this year alone, it’s climbed over 23%, which tends to suggest an unrelenting trend rather than short-lived enthusiasm.
This week’s action was especially forceful. A 6.35% rise is the largest weekly gain we’ve seen since March 2023, and in both cases the strength of those rallies left limited room for selling on the way up. Interestingly, this surge didn’t simply happen in isolation — the price bounced off a technical level that’s often watched carefully: the 50-day moving average at $2969.76. That moving average isn’t just a line on a chart — many systems track it, and it’s currently sloping upward. So when price action stays above it, it usually signals that buyers remain in control. If we were to dip under it, that could bring about heavier short-term selling pressure, especially from momentum-based funds or programs that follow trend signals.
But we’re not there.
Instead, we briefly touched that support area before launching above $3200, topping out at $3245.45. That created a new high and, importantly, confirmed continued demand even after strong rallies in prior weeks.
Strategies for Leveraged Environments
Now, what does this mean for those of us operating in leveraged environments?
Pressure has clearly built upwards. The consistent price movement and steep weekly closes suggest that repositioning is ongoing — long positions are likely being held still, rather than trimmed. The risk, however, comes not from price direction itself, but from where bids might start thinning out if the rally pauses. If one is long from lower levels, trailing stops underneath recent swing lows — not the moving average — could help balance risk without cutting exposure prematurely. If, by contrast, positioning is more short-term or delta-neutral, then the range between $3080 and $3120 serves as an area where volatility could compress.
There’s also a timing concern. Seasonality is starting to shift, and with commodities often showing sensitivity in early summer months due to currency moves or shifts in bond yields, watching how the U.S. dollar pairs trade — particularly dollar-yen and euro-dollar — can provide clues about whether demand is driven more by real metals buying or macro hedging. Jackson’s comments last week hinted that longer-term rate expectations haven’t properly aligned with inflation data. That mismatch tends, historically, to push flows toward hard assets sooner or later.
Another detail easy to miss: option skew in gold has begun to reflect increased interest in upside calls with short expiries. When weekly implied volatility expands faster than monthly, it usually means traders expect short-term action, often tied to event-based movements. That opens up opportunities for structured trades — straddles, directional call spreads, or skewed butterflies — particularly in front of large economic releases set for early next week.
We should also take note of what’s not happening. There hasn’t yet been a blow-off top. Volume remains firm but not extreme. That’s a possible sign that this uptrend has not attracted late-money traders yet, the ones who typically enter near exhaustion and trigger reversals. For now, order books remain tilted buy-side, though some thinning has appeared above the $3250 region on low timeframes.
In short, we’re watching for any failures to hold prior breakout levels. It’s better, perhaps, to trade with tools that allow for flexible risk – light futures positions pared with optionality, or basis trading if quotes support it. We focus on measured responses to strong movement, rather than leaning entirely into the current push or fading it too early. Let the chart do the talking — and until it speaks otherwise, this remains a one-directional move.
