Gold prices are currently supported around $3,120, with a recent peak at $3,149. Traders speculate on the implications of reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump, which could potentially lead to a market correction if the tariffs are less severe than expected.
The anticipated private sector employment data by ADP suggests an increase of 105,000 new jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February. This data is viewed as a precursor to the Nonfarm Payrolls report due on Friday.
Market Volatility And Anticipation
Market volatility increased ahead of the tariff announcement, causing a selloff in U.S. stocks. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 15.8% chance of a rate cut in May, with June having a 25.6% chance for rates to remain unchanged.
Record inflows were noted in the Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, totalling 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) followed by an additional 1 billion Yuan the next day. Central bank demand and supply constraints continue to support the bullish trend in gold.
Technical analysis shows resistance at $3,141 and $3,149, with a broader target at $3,200. Support levels include $3,093 and $3,073, which may come into play without reversing recent gains.
We’ve seen gold prices gather strength near $3,120, hovering just below the recent high at $3,149. This is in no small part due to the wider environment of economic uncertainty. Market participants have been recalibrating expectations since Trump’s announcement on reciprocal tariffs. There’s been a sharp adjustment in sentiment — if the measures turn out softer than feared, those who positioned too aggressively might be caught on the wrong foot. That potentially could lend itself to some near-term downside in metals if unwinding takes hold.
Labour Data And Interest Rate Implications
The better-than-expected projection from ADP on private sector job gains — 105,000 added in March compared to just 77,000 the month before — has been factored into models as a signal ahead of Friday’s government payrolls report. That figure has the power to reinforce or disrupt current interest rate expectations. The momentum in labour data, if consistent across both ADP and Nonfarm numbers, could prompt a reassessment of rate probabilities and push yields higher — something we must watch very carefully.
In the equity space, volatility has already picked up, with risk appetite waning just ahead of trade policy updates. The change in tone may not be limited to stocks, as cross-asset positioning adjusts in tandem. The CME FedWatch data points to a 15.8% probability of a rate cut next month, though the market isn’t making any strong bets just yet; the June view seems more cautious, nestled around expectations for no change at 25.6%. These figures show hesitation more than commitment.
On the flow side, Chinese investors are making bold moves. Huaan’s Yifu Gold ETF drew an extraordinary 2.4 billion yuan over just two sessions, with 1.4 billion arriving first and another 1 billion not long after. We should take note — this kind of activity doesn’t happen on speculation alone. Official sector demand remains resilient, and we’re still running against a constrained supply pipeline, further firming sentiment in the yellow metal.
From a technical standpoint, the chart presents a layered structure. Near-term resistance resides at $3,141 and $3,149 — levels that have already capped attempts higher. Traders looking ahead may find the next area of interest forming around $3,200, which has become the logical extension should price punch through the upper band. On the downside, watch for pullbacks toward $3,093 or even $3,073. These marks could become active if short-term longs lighten up or if economic data clears up the present haze, though there’s no indication yet that momentum is fading.
For positioning, staying agile seems warranted. Rapid reversals, particularly around rate expectations or any policy missteps, could offer sharp intraday moves. We should be mindful of overcommitting in one direction — keeping exposure lean and watching how positioning shifts around key data and geopolitical headlines will likely be more rewarding in weeks like this.
