As stock markets globally reached their lows, the pressure on gold decreased, prompting a strong rally to new all-time highs. This surge was propelled by concerns over stagflation from trade wars, making “long gold” the most crowded trade according to the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey. Gold remains in an upward trend, with diminishing real yields as rate hikes are anticipated to remain infrequent. Risks include a potential stock market decline or a hawkish Federal Reserve. In the short term, a resolution in trade tensions may cause a deeper market correction.
On the daily chart, Gold’s upward movement paused at the 3245 level. Buyers may see a favourable risk to reward setup near the trendline, aiming for further gains. Sellers would need the price to drop below the trendline and the 2957 level to target the 2832 level.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the previous peak at 3168 might serve as support. Buyers could enter around this level with a controlled risk, aiming higher, while sellers look for a decline to target the 3057 level.
Trade Insights
In the 1-hour chart, a break below a minor upward trendline suggests possible consolidation or pullback. Buyers are likely to engage near 3168, aiming for new highs, as sellers seek a dip to 3057.
The Good Friday holiday shortens this week. Key events include US Retail Sales data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow, followed by US Jobless Claims on Thursday. Market focus remains on tariff negotiations.
What’s already been laid out points to an increased appetite for gold, fuelled by economic anxieties. Investors, reacting to stagflation signals and trade disputes, have turned to the yellow metal, attracted by its conventional role as a haven when equities go south or inflation expectations remain elevated. With rate hikes expected to slow down or even stall altogether, yields adjusted for inflation continue to fall, encouraging gold prices to climb further. Of course, not without risk—particularly if equity markets shift downward again or the Fed’s tone shifts more hawkish than expected.
In the bigger picture, gold has paused after reaching unprecedented highs, sitting near the 3245 mark on the daily chart. There’s buying intent still visible in the market, and potential entries rest near that rising trendline. Those looking to profit from an advance might be eyeing this area as an opportunity with balanced risk. On the contrary, any clear break below 2957 could signal a move in the opposite direction, opening up the path down to 2832 as a next target.
Analyzing Potential Movements
Shifting down a time frame to the 4-hour chart, the 3168 level that capped price earlier may now serve as a turning point for renewed buying. If this line holds, the probability grows for a response higher towards prior highs. Sellers, meanwhile, might prepare their entries if price drops toward 3057—though this would likely require evidence of failure from buyers around 3168 to confirm the move.
Looking even more closely through the 1-hour lens, we already see the structure weakening. A short-term uptrend has broken, hinting at some turbulence. Those who took early positions higher may find themselves reconsidering, while opportunistic entries might cluster just above 3168. If this area holds, a fresh push upward could be triggered. Below there, pressure likely builds toward 3057.
Now, stepping away from charts, the shortened trading week increases the potential for sharp moves due to reduced liquidity. With fewer sessions, reactions to economic cues can be more volatile. Retail Sales data from the US landing tomorrow could sway expectations around consumer strength. Plus, Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech might either reassure markets or inflame fears depending on how decisively he comments on inflation and future policy direction. Then there’s Thursday’s Jobless Claims figures, which can adjust perceptions about employment dynamics and back up or contradict Powell’s tone.
Trade negotiations remain another active fault line. Any easing of tensions here would influence what we’ve seen in gold—potentially prompting a pullback as some of the perceived inflation or growth risks unwind. How people position themselves going into or just after these fundamental updates could define price movement for the next several sessions. Strategy here involves readiness—not overexposure—and using the levels mentioned as markers for quick repositioning.
