Jamieson Greer testified in Congress regarding trade negotiations and tariffs related to Vietnam. He stated that Vietnam is aware it is a primary target of tariff actions.
Greer indicated an effort to expedite trade negotiations and mentioned that President Trump is unlikely to provide tariff exemptions soon. The market is questioning whether the tariffs scheduled for midnight will be postponed, speculating on the timing in relation to planned 10% tariffs. Greer refrained from making definitive comments on the implementation of the tariffs, suggesting uncertainty in the situation.
Calculated Strategic Posture
Greer’s comments during the congressional hearing reveal a strategic posture that’s becoming more calculated. Vietnam, according to his assessment, has recognised its position in the hierarchy of U.S. trade focus. By pinpointing it as a leading concern for forthcoming tariff measures, Greer is not merely stating the obvious—he’s confirming that the events unfolding aren’t incidental or reactive, but rather part of a broader course being fixed with deliberate pace.
His reference to the acceleration of trade negotiations can be read as acknowledgement of ongoing pressure from within the administration to produce measurable outcomes. The phrasing wasn’t casual. It suggests deadlines are being drawn more firmly, and that the tools of trade enforcement—namely tariffs—are not being ruled out, even temporarily.
The refusal to commit on whether the slated tariff increase at midnight will go into effect carries tactical weight. That lack of clarity is being interpreted by some in financial circles as a message: do not expect exemptions or last-minute leniency. With Greer openly stating that the President is not inclined to grant relief, the message becomes more deterministic than ambiguous.
Implications for Market Volatility
From our standpoint, volatility in options tied to industrials and import-heavy retail sectors may intensify. Directional positions based on speculation around postponement could attract outsized risk. Given the recent cadence of trade actions, entry points must be treated with more caution than usual.
While Greer avoided specifics about the scope or scale of the tariffs, his language points to an administration that is comfortable using brinkmanship as a lever. As we interpret it, that makes short-term strategies that count on reversals or reprieve potentially problematic. Bid-ask spreads in derivatives tied to affected indices have already widened slightly, and this may continue as hedging activity increases ahead of clarity.
We should monitor implied volatility in instruments linked to ASEAN trade exposure. With uncertainty being priced in more aggressively, skew across both ends of the market could offer brief deviations worth capturing, but only with well-defined limits.
Overall, the testimony served to confirm rather than enlighten. For those of us calibrating near-term exposures, the stance taken today should translate into reduced reliance on high-probability repricing. Instead, we should allow for stasis and evaluate positions under the assumption that the policy direction is being adhered to, despite market pushback.
