US yields are increasing, with the 2-year yield remaining near 4.66%, having previously dipped to 3.446%, down 19.8 basis points. The 10-year yield has risen by 6.3 basis points, now above 4% at 4.058%, compared to a low of 3.86% last week.
The hourly chart for the 10-year yield shows it nearing a target around 4.07%, marked by the falling 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement level. The behaviour at this point will determine whether it holds as resistance or breaches this level.
Longer Term Perspective On Yields
From a longer-term perspective, yields are lower than the January high of 4.809% but still exceed the September 2024 low of 3.60%. Additional resistance exists between 4.108 and 4.157.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY is experiencing new highs, nearing the falling 100-hour moving average at 147.49. It has surpassed the March low of 146.53, which now serves as a short-term support target.
What this tells us, plainly, is that yields across US government bonds have begun nudging higher again, with shorter-term instruments like the 2-year bond holding notably firm following recent dips. Last week’s low on the 2-year, near 3.446%, indicated calm, but that appears to have evaporated, and it’s now hovering close to where it began the month—right around 4.66%. For traders gauging momentum, this reversion offers some framing.
On the longer end, the 10-year yield has pushed above the 4% handle and is now within arm’s reach of a previously tested threshold just over 4.07%. That level isn’t chosen arbitrarily: it lines up with both a descending 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the previous downward move. Those two technical markers, when converging so neatly, offer clear guidance. If yields pause there again, we would observe a maintained form of overhead resistance. But a clean break through, especially with sustained activity above it, could provoke a quicker climb toward the next resistance cluster between 4.108% and 4.157%. That range becomes the next place to test sentiment.
Analysis On Structural Trend
To put it in practical terms, the structural trend in yields is reasserting itself, but hasn’t yet pushed forcefully past longer-term reference points like the 4.809% peak from January. The low from late September, at 3.60%, remains far below, underlining that while yields are moving higher, we are still some distance from extremes seen earlier this year.
As for the yen, particularly the USDJPY pair, we’ve clocked a recent high that cuts back through old territory. It’s now drifting just beneath the 100-hour moving average too, similarly falling. Noteworthily, it’s just climbed above what was the March low, at 146.53, which we now treat as a near-term support level. That kind of behaviour signals a potential reversal from past downward action. When former support or resistance levels reappear in this way, bouncing around key retracement levels, it’s often the market’s way of asking whether it still believes in the past structure.
With these technical factors in view, we should consider where price movement may quiet down and where it might pick up steam. Markets often behave like engines in low gear before sudden bursts of acceleration. In our view, the next week or two will revolve around whether these well-known levels serve their prior functions or begin giving way.
Watching how price reacts—not just where it moves—is far more useful than expecting it to follow a script. Quiet can be deceptive, especially when volatility compresses ahead of data or headline risk. Patience is often more productive than prediction at times like this.
