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The European session will feature Swiss CPI and final Services PMIs, while the American session includes US Challenger Job Cuts, Jobless Claims, Canadian Services PMI, and ISM Services PMI. Market attention is expected to be on Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement and its potential effects on the global economy.
Switzerland’s March CPI is anticipated to show a yearly increase of 0.5% compared to 0.3% previously, with the monthly figure expected at 0.1% versus 0.6% prior. The Swiss National Bank recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting inflation expectations downward for this year but raising them for 2026.
Us labor market and service sector dynamics
In the US, Initial Jobless Claims are projected at 225,000, slightly above the previous 224,000, while Continuing Claims are estimated at 1,870,000, compared to 1,856,000 earlier. Jobless Claims remain within the 200,000-260,000 range established since 2022.
The US ISM Services PMI for March is expected at 53.0, down from 53.5. A S&P Global survey indicated a Services sector rebound to 54.3, although some growth may be temporary, driven by recovery from adverse weather conditions.
Central bank speakers include ECB’s de Guindos and Schnabel, alongside Fed’s Jefferson and Cook throughout the day. Their comments may provide further insight into monetary policy perspectives.
That initial breakdown outlines a fairly dense calendar of releases and officials’ remarks. It walks through a set of scheduled indicators from both sides of the Atlantic, with some attention on inflation in Switzerland and labour market resilience in the United States — not to mention sentiment in the service sector. At the same time, markets are sure to comb through any trade-policy developments tied to Trump’s rhetoric, given their potential to disrupt pricing in commodities and broad FX flows.
Looking closely at the Swiss inflation release, a year-on-year pickup might look like a reversal of recent easing trends. But the month-on-month shift is expected to decelerate sharply — a 0.1% increase compared with the prior month’s 0.6% bounce. That would support the recent decision by the central bank to trim rates, the first of such moves in years. It signals they’re still looking through shorter-term fluctuations and leaning into stabilising policy with an eye on medium-term goals for price stability. Traders should read this as giving more room for relative positioning in EUR/CHF and potentially unlatching recent implied volatility pricing on rate divergence trades.
Fed tone and market positioning
Shift to the US now — initial and continuing jobless numbers sit just above prior reads but well inside the structural band we’ve seen hold since two years back. Job markets over there remain tight, and that keeps short-end interest rate pricing sticky. Any broadening out of the claims data, though, would feed into expectations for a cooling economy — not immediately, but down the line in a quarter or two. And that’s where the service PMI arrives in the frame.
That PMI print has been wobbling for a while. The gauge expected this time — at 53.0 — would confirm a minor step down from February’s 53.5. What’s more, S&P’s own tracker, while higher, came off the back of weather-driven distortions in January and February. That means any optimism coming from the headline might be built on a fragile base of post-snow clean-up rather than sustainable demand. Service inflation remains a sticking point for the Fed, so how this breaks across different industries in the release will carry weight.
More than a few eyes will be hanging on commentary from central bank members. De Guindos and Schnabel have diverged softly before in tone — one leaning dovish while the other warns of upside risks. Markets weigh these comments differently depending on timing and delivery, but both will feed into near-term rate-path probability functions. Similarly, Jefferson and Cook have carried the more moderate views on the Federal Open Market Committee. If they stress patience or risks around jobs and service inflation, that will ripple across front-end yields and short-maturity futures.
What we’re watching isn’t a question of direction but of cadence. We have to interpret whether markets are moving too quickly to price in dovishness off softer PMIs and CPI beats. And at the same time, every policy comment that drops — every slight adjustment in tone — could reframe that momentum.
In these weeks, pricing skew across options in rate-related or US dollar pairs reflects this hesitancy. A volatility premium is back. For those of us watching where vol markets are pointing, it suggests traders are willing to pay up for near-term protection, noting the uncertainty brewing from both data and policy cues.
Meanwhile, the tariff risk — and this is key — threatens to inject instability into cross-border trade assumptions. That potential reconfiguration of supply lines and cost bases isn’t just theoretical. It would affect corporate margins and bring forward knocks to growth expectations in select sectors.
All of this is occurring in parallel, not in isolation. The resulting asymmetries across currencies, yields, sectors — they underscore why positioning has been lighter, and how short-term instruments are commanding higher premiums. That should inform how positioning is adjusted ahead of any sentiment or CPI surprises next week.
