The United States goods trade balance for February was reported at $-147 billion, a slight improvement from the previous month’s $-147.9 billion.
EUR/USD decreased from its six-month peaks of 1.1140-1.1150, now near 1.1050, amid a modest recovery in the US Dollar. GBP/USD softened slightly but remains close to 1.3100 after reaching just above 1.3200.
Gold And Digital Asset Movements
Gold prices are currently around $3,100 per troy ounce, retreating from past highs of $3,170. Solana (SOL) gained nearly 2% following competition between a DEX and a meme coin launchpad on its blockchain.
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are expected to be finally launched after previous delays, introducing a package of reciprocal tariffs.
The marginal improvement in the US goods trade balance to -$147 billion reflects a slight narrowing in the gap between exports and imports, although the figure remains persistently wide. This minor shift doesn’t change the broader view that the real economy continues to demand more than it supplies abroad, feeding into ongoing pressure on the US Dollar. However, the Dollar found some footing recently, which has caused EUR/USD to retrace from its recent peak toward the 1.1050 level.
That pullback in the euro coincides with cautious behaviour in broader FX markets, where traders appear reluctant to push directional bets too far ahead of upcoming inflation prints. Morgan’s dollar rebound drove enough pressure to cause the euro to give back gains accumulated during its six-month climb. For those in the options space, the flattening vol curve on major dollar pairs hints at thinning demand for upside euro exposure near term.
Sterling Consolidation And Tariff Risks
Sterling’s brief flirtation with 1.3200 was notable more for the speed with which it faded than for the gain itself. With GBP/USD settling near 1.3100, the pair moves back in line with medium-term expectations derived from relative rates differentials and positioning squared up after a round of profit-taking. The Bank of England remains in a holding pattern, and that ambiguity trims the tail risk from both ends, suppressing vol premiums. Traders looking for trend continuation in the pair would do well to remain nimble, as range-bound trading remains the core expectation over the next fortnight.
Elsewhere, gold prices backing off from $3,170 to the $3,100 mark hardly surprised us. Volatility in precious metals remains tied to nominal yields in the US and geopolitical noise, which continue to nudge investors in and out of hard assets. With real rates staying elevated, there’s a cap on how high gold can run without fresh catalysts. Short-term implied vols have ticked lower as gamma sellers return, which possibly reflects an environment where breakouts are being faded rather than followed.
In digital assets, interest in Solana continues to expand, though the recent bounce associated with a launchpad push remains too isolated to suggest broader chain adoption traction. The 2% rally can be read more as a liquidity-driven move than a re-rating. Near-daily on-chain shifts are sparking competing narratives, and while that introduces opportunities, derivatives tied to network tokens like SOL are showing early signs of declining open interest after the latest uptick—a signal some participants have begun scaling back exposure.
Finally, the return of reciprocal tariff discussion—spearheaded by Trump’s pending policy schedule—adds another layer of macro risk that some might underestimate. With that policy framework set for rollout in the near term, the anticipation alone has begun to ripple into expectations for global trade dynamics. For those of us pricing volatility across commodities and index products, the potential hit to transnational supply chains presents a tangible trigger that should not be ignored. Short-dated options are slowly adjusting, but the underperformance at the wings tells us implieds might still be underpricing event risk.
Experienced participants will likely notice the repricing is asymmetrical—traders are assigning more weight to tail outcomes than base-case ranges, with skew steepening notably in effected sectors. This kind of lop-sided positioning tends to persist until either clarity emerges or expiration clears positioning.
