AUD/JPY is currently trading around the 90.30 mark following a modest gain exceeding 0.30% on Friday. Despite this rise, the technical outlook remains bearish, with resistance at 90.86 and downward pressure from key moving averages.
On Friday, the pair struggled to exceed critical resistance levels, with price action failing to show strong momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42.15, while the MACD indicates a sell signal, alongside neutral readings from the Bull Bear Power at -3.748 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -92.800.
Trend Indicators
Trend indicators show a preference for sellers, with the 20-day SMA at 92.780, the 100-day SMA at 95.861, and the 200-day SMA at 97.903 all declining. Additional bearish confirmation arises from the 10-day EMA at 90.867 and 10-day SMA at 90.985.
Support is identified at 89.341, whereas resistance is positioned at 90.867, 90.899, and 90.985. A decisive break above these levels would be necessary to alter the current bearish trend, which remains under pressure.
The Aussie-Yen pair has seen a limited bounce, breaching the 90.30 region with a modest uptick at the tail end of last week. However, this movement looks more like a pause in the broader downward path than a turning point. It’s not gaining any real foothold above key thresholds, and the technical layers still lean in favour of further mildly pressured sessions ahead.
Roadblocks Ahead
Looking closely, the RSI at 42.15 tells us that buying interest is weak, but not yet exhausted. It’s languishing below the midline, which tends to suggest we’re not seeing any decisive buying pressure return just yet. Similarly, with the MACD flashing a sell cue and both the CCI and Bull-Bear Power stuck below zero, there’s a lack of conviction to drive a strong move higher. These tools, when grouped, lean firmly towards a sellers-dominated setting, albeit not in an aggressive way.
We also can’t ignore the role trend-following signals are playing — and they aren’t handing buyers any favours at the moment. All eyes remain on the major daily averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs are sloping downwards and all stand well above current pricing. That shows sustained pressure from previous sell activity, which needs to be put under real strain before a proper shift in market sentiment can begin. Not only that, but the shorter 10-day EMA and SMA are now sitting above the market, acting as local barriers, with prices continually testing but failing to break them.
On the level front, interim support down at 89.341 seems to be the immediate safety net. If that breaks, it’s difficult to argue against fresh downward extension. On the upside, the trio of resistances — 90.867, 90.899, and 90.985 — are effectively forming a cap. Any recovery rally would need to dismantle these zones with clear and continuous momentum to suggest something deeper is going on beneath the surface. Until then, upside moves should be treated with caution.
From where we’re sat, any positioning should continue to recognise the current weight pressing down on the pair, particularly with no obvious stimulus to trigger a new direction. The market isn’t in a rush to change mood — it’s more of a slow burn, with daily flows continuing to reinforce persistent hesitancy. Staying responsive to short-term developments rather than committing fully to a directional call may prove more practical in the sessions ahead. Look out for fresh price rejections near that 90.90 area — they would reaffirm the lid remains firmly in place.
