The United States Export Price Index remained stable at 0% in March, meeting expectations. Meanwhile, AUD/USD rose near 0.6390 despite ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.
EUR/USD fell near 1.1280 as the US Dollar gained strength. Mixed results from European Industrial Production and Economic Sentiment impacted the Euro’s performance.
Gold traded above $3,200 per troy ounce, rebounding despite global trade concerns. An improved risk sentiment has supported the price stabilisation of gold.
After President Trump’s tariff announcements, altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin showed signs of recovery. Recent tariff shifts have introduced volatility to cryptocurrency markets.
Wall Street surged following a tariff delay announced by Trump, but gains were moderate due to sustaining trade tensions with China. Although recession fears have lessened, the potential for deeper market setbacks remains.
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The data emerging from the US has largely aligned with earlier expectations—export prices holding at zero growth reflects a market that is neither accelerating nor contracting in foreign demand for American goods. While this might suggest some measure of relief in a market that had braced for shocks, it also points to subdued global consumption patterns, tracking closely with broader geopolitical frictions.
In the currency space, the Australian dollar climbing toward 0.6390 is particularly interesting given the backdrop. While tensions between major trade powers persist, there seems to be a degree of resilience in the AUD, possibly reflecting firmer domestic demand or a shift in investor positioning. It’s not entirely unusual to see temporary strength despite persistent headwinds, but we wouldn’t consider this rally to be deeply rooted just yet.
The euro found itself slipping near 1.1280. The combined pressure of inconsistent economic releases from the bloc and renewed demand for the dollar has weighed on it. Lagging industrial numbers and uneven sentiment indicators suggest activity remains patchy across member states. That’s forced markets to reassess potential policy paths from Frankfurt. As a result, euro-denominated contracts have become sensitive—watch how implied volatility adjusts in short-dated positions.
On the commodity side, gold crossing $3,200 per ounce and holding there is worth noting, especially while overall news points to economic doubts and wavering investor confidence. Sentiment seems to have shifted away from pure fear-based hedging to more nuanced buying activity. The persistence of elevated prices implies that any backtracking in geopolitical discussions or central bank directions could spark renewed inflows. We’re already seeing that contingency priced into some defensive option strategies.
Cryptocurrencies, led by moves in XRP and Dogecoin, reacted sharply after new tariff announcements. Volatility remains pronounced here. These shifts remind us that even digital assets, often assumed to be decoupled from traditional policy changes, are tethered through investor sentiment. Larger holders continue to navigate the post-announcement reaction, and short gamma positions have likely seen some de-risking.
Equities in the US gained, albeit modestly, after a delay on proposed tariffs was confirmed. However, it’s important to understand that residual uncertainty has not been priced out entirely. The fear of a downturn may have eased slightly in recent sessions, yet the risk of sharp drawdowns persists. For us, this translates into elevated put interest in certain sectors, particularly those with global exposure.
As always, leveraged trading in the foreign exchange space carries elevated exposure to sharp price swings. Position sizes and margins should reflect that. We take care to re-evaluate risk buffers more frequently during these episodes, knowing how quickly correlated assets can shift.
Markets are staying reactive, not predictive, and that’s being reflected in futures pricing, skew behaviour, and term structure dislocations. Some instruments remain attractive for defined-risk positioning, but the technicals and funding dynamics must be considered in tandem.
