Gold prices in Pakistan increased on Thursday, with the cost reaching 28,317.56 PKR per gram, up from 27,935.17 PKR on Wednesday. The price per tola rose to 330,290.50 PKR, compared to 325,830.30 PKR the previous day.
For 10 grams, the price stands at 283,175.60 PKR, while a troy ounce costs 880,775.20 PKR. Central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022, valued at approximately $70 billion.
Recent data indicates a 53.5% chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May, compared to 10.6% a week earlier. Chinese investments in gold-backed ETFs reached 7.6 billion yuan ($1 billion) last week.
Market Momentum
The gold market appears to be gaining momentum once again, led primarily by renewed interest from institutional buyers and a noticeable shift in expectations regarding US monetary policy. Pakistan’s domestic gold prices have reacted accordingly, climbing steadily across all standard weights. A per gram rate of 28,317.56 PKR indicates that we are seeing broader alignment with international price moves.
The per tola change, which now stands at over 330,000 PKR, reinforces the idea that bullion demand is not just holding steady but intensifying slightly. Even the increase in the price for 10 grams confirms what the tola movement is suggesting—physical demand is influencing national valuations in a consistent manner. None of this is coincidental.
Elsewhere, the shift in interest rate expectations in the US cannot be overlooked. A 53.5% probability of a rate cut by May, up from a relatively modest 10.6% last week, represents a substantial modification in sentiment. That change alone adds meaningful fuel to gold as a hedging mechanism. When rates are expected to fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold naturally declines, making it more attractive for both short-term movers and long-term allocators.
Zhou’s country has also come into focus. With Chinese gold-backed ETF inflows hitting 7.6 billion yuan—or roughly $1 billion—last week, there’s more on the table than mere speculation. That level of investment suggests a strategic pivot, possibly in anticipation of wider currency or inflation-related dynamics in the Asian markets. It’s hard to treat that as noise.
Central Bank Activity
Viewing recent central bank activity adds yet another layer. The purchase of 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022, for a value nearing $70 billion, cast a long shadow. We’ve found that actions from central banks can adjust the underlying tone of the market without needing daily shifts. They move in weight, not in rhythm.
In our approach, positioning for the weeks ahead requires careful monitoring of both rate expectations stateside and capital flows in the east. Traders who are short-duration need to recognise that volatility clusters around policy windows. These moments, distorted by noise and momentum, can become opportunities—but only for those willing to adjust pricing models quickly.
Longer holders, on the other hand, may want to pay closer attention not just to ETF participation metrics but to official accumulation patterns. When institutions start building, they often aren’t betting on a quarterly cycle—they’re adjusting systemic exposure.
Watch out for currency adjustments, especially in EM currencies, as any move there can ripple through import costs and pricing alignment in local gold markets. For example, further depreciation in the rupee would, all else equal, push gram and tola prices higher even in a flat international market.
Forward curves, if you’re using them as a valuation anchor, need to be recalibrated to reflect this changing combination of external ETFs and internal expectations. Be cautious of using historical volatility bands in isolation—they are not well-equipped to capture hawkish-to-dovish pivots in policy cycles.
Finally, positioning must respect the movement of macro money. When institutions with long duration—such as central banks or sovereign funds—make directional moves, risk premia can compress unpredictably. This isn’t new, but it matters now more than usual.
