Initial jobless claims in the US reached 219,000, compared to an estimate of 225,000. The previous week’s claims were revised from 224,000 to 225,000.
The 4-week moving average for initial claims is 223,000, down from 224,250 last week. Continuing claims amounted to 1.903 million, above the 1.870 million estimate, with a 4-week moving average of 1.871 million, slightly higher than the previous week’s 1.868 million.
State Level Changes In Claims
Kentucky experienced the largest rise in claims, with an increase of 915, followed by Oregon with 577 and New York with 544. In contrast, Michigan saw the largest drop, decreasing by 4,040, with California and Texas also reporting substantial reductions.
The latest figures show a lower-than-expected number of new jobless claims in the United States. Coming in at 219,000, the total is beneath the consensus forecast of 225,000. Meanwhile, last week’s tally has been nudged up by 1,000 to 225,000, though that revision only slightly affects the broader picture. When assessing the steady trend rather than week-to-week noise, the four-week moving average—now at 223,000—has eased down a bit from 224,250, suggesting labour market resilience, despite ongoing shifts in regional hiring patterns.
Importantly, continued claims, which reflect individuals still receiving unemployment benefits after the initial week, have increased. The figure has reached 1.903 million, higher than the projected 1.870 million, with the average now at 1.871 million. That’s a small uptick from 1.868 million previously. These numbers hint at steadier, more persistent joblessness in some corners of the country—notably where layoffs have dragged out longer than expected.
Broken down by state, Bevin’s region, Kentucky, reported the largest weekly increase. It rose by 915 claims, indicating localised stress that may be linked to sector-specific cutbacks. Similarly, Oregon and New York posted gains, although smaller in magnitude. On the flip side, Whitmer’s state, Michigan, saw a pronounced drop—over 4,000 fewer claims—suggesting a fast turnaround in rehires or stronger labour retention. California and Texas also had meaningful declines, reinforcing a divergence in regional dynamics.
Outlook On Labour Market Trends
Now, for those betting on volatility or economic softening, the picture is mixed but informative. We’re seeing a monthly trend that remains below the six-month average, and that’s saying a fair bit about how employers are behaving post-pandemic. In terms of storing up positions or rolling existing contracts, this data doesn’t shout outright change, but it does whisper something important. We’d be wary of building in assumptions of a deteriorating labour market just yet. That said, the rise in continued claims gives us a reason to monitor the next few prints more closely. These aren’t just flickers. They’re breadcrumbs.
We’ve been here before—sifting through numbers that don’t shout but signal. Today’s figures give us just enough drift to reject complacency. If Michigan’s turnaround holds and Kentucky’s strain stretches another week or two, the balance could swing further. In risk terms, there’s no overwhelming tilt, but we’re nudging one way. For those positioning around payrolls or macro trends, the elevated continuing claims should spur tighter stops and slower position growth in the near term.
Expectations around jobless claims often lag reality by a week or two. Traders should be mindful of being caught off-footed by a sudden snap higher in new claims or a drop-off that restores bullish tilt to rate-sensitive assets. With this in hand, we remain watchful for any upcoming adjustments in weekly expectations, especially as the broader economic figures begin to reconcile.
