In March 2025, house buyer demand in the UK reached its lowest point since September 2023, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The measure of new buyer enquiries dropped to a net balance of -32, down from -16 in February.
The House Price Balance stood at +2, marking the weakest figure since August 2024. The expiry of the stamp duty break contributed to a slowdown in market activity, as reflected in the latest survey results, which indicated increasing negative sentiment amid recent macroeconomic news.
Sharper Cooling In The Property Markets
This data from RICS reflects a sharper cooling in property markets than some had anticipated, with buyer interest dropping off more steeply in recent weeks. The deterioration in the buyer enquiries figure suggests reduced appetite for purchases, likely tied to wider financial uncertainties and the withdrawal of a key tax relief. The stamp duty holiday acted as a temporary support for demand, and its removal has laid bare the softer underlying trend. On top of that, the slight improvement in house prices—itself a thin positive at a net balance of +2—should not mislead anyone. It indicates a market still moving sideways, rather than gaining traction.
Interestingly, this declining momentum comes while broader macroeconomic signals, like gilt yields and job market indicators, have been sending mixed messages. That divergence matters. A deceleration in actual transaction interest, while prices hold flat, puts pressure on assumptions built into rate expectations. We’d note that forward markets may have to reassess the degree of resilience previously priced in, particularly in segments of the economy more sensitive to household confidence.
In this context, we regard the latest figures as reinforcing a growing asymmetry in risk. Rate cuts might arrive sooner if weakening in consumer-facing sectors accelerates. But forward curves have not yet fully adjusted to that possibility. We’ve seen before how sticky rate expectations can be, especially when early signs of weakening are shrugged off or treated as noise.
Implications Of Buyer Activity Decline
The absence of a bounce in buyer activity, just months after the end of the concession, tells us more than one good monthly data point ever could. That decline to -32 should be understood not only as a number, but as a broader reflection of hesitation—financial, regulatory, and psychological. Lending conditions remain tight, and wage growth is losing pace relative to inflation drifts. All that has consequences.
For that reason, what we think is important now is to watch how sensitivities change to housing-related data. There’s a possibility that even modest downside surprises in the coming weeks could trigger outsized moves if positioning remains one-sided. Given the way recent distributions have shifted, and with liquidity patterns still somewhat distorted in sessions following UK-specific data, we think there’s now more room for rapid repricing on weaker prints than stronger ones.
Meanwhile, price behaviour in short-end contracts has remained surprisingly sticky, considering the decline in forward-looking demand metrics. That may reflect confidence in broader GDP stability or a belief that BoE communications will steady expectations. Still, reading between the lines, the narrative of ‘wait and see’ could meet reality quicker than some anticipate.
It’s worth pointing out that the response from surveyors is historically a leading signal for housing transaction volume—a data point markets tend to ignore until it aligns with other indicators. But when it leads, it often leads by several months. For those whose focus lies in volatility around household sector risk, that matters.
By paying attention to the timing and scale of the turn in sentiment, there’s a possibility to act ahead of the wider moves. Not after everyone else has already caught up.
