Market liquidity is low on Monday mornings, which can lead to price fluctuations as more Asian centres begin trading.
Indicative rates show minimal changes from late Friday. The rates include EUR/USD at 1.0921, USD/JPY at 145.93, GBP/USD at 1.2845, USD/CHF at 0.8602, USD/CAD at 1.4259, AUD/USD at 0.6019, and NZD/USD at 0.5580.
Asian Trading Session
The opening of the Asian trading session typically sees thinner liquidity, especially during the early hours of Monday, leading to wider bid-ask spreads and occasional oversized price movements. This early-week pattern often reflects absence of major participants as markets across regions phase into activity. The indicative rates quoted from late Friday show little variation, suggesting a quiet start without any immediate fundamental catalyst or macroeconomic surprise over the weekend.
With EUR/USD hovering around 1.0921, and the dollar holding steady versus the yen at 145.93, we note that positioning appears stable. These levels suggest investors have not made large directional wagers prior to the week’s data releases. Sterling remains firm above 1.28, a continuation of the recent strength that followed from last week’s macro releases from the UK. The franc and loonie are similarly unchanged, priced at 0.8602 and 1.4259 respectively, reflecting relative calm across North America-related pairs as of early Monday pricing.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars continue to trade on the back foot. With AUD/USD at 0.6019 and NZD/USD at 0.5580, both remain closer to recent lows, seemingly pressured by weaker regional sentiment and slower Chinese activity, something we monitor regularly through PMI releases and thermal coal exports. They have been struggling to sustain any bounce, hinting at reduced confidence in the outlook for domestic growth and rates.
Observing Key Indicators
For those of us tracking derivatives, the main takeaway so far is the maintained equilibrium after Friday’s close. Thin liquidity conditions are typically not sustainable beyond mid-Asia session, which leaves room for early volatility and fakeouts before European markets begin to set more reliable direction. It’s a reminder to hedge risk rather than chase early price moves. We often see options volatility remain slightly bid at the open and then normalise as more traders step in.
What’s important from these levels is to observe whether larger participants begin to lift or fade present spot levels around key round numbers. As of now, all pairs quoted are close to psychological thresholds, but none have breached convincingly. That points to either broader indecision or upcoming data that could provoke moves. We should be especially alert to cross-currency flows into the London session, as these often help confirm whether the early action had any substance or whether it simply reflected minimal market depth.
From this point, it’s not about reacting to prices already printed. Instead, focus should stay on implied volatility levels, particularly short-dated ranges across euro and sterling options. When enthusiasm returns to any risk appetite metrics or forward guidance from central banks signals a shift, it tends to be reflected here first.
In the current environment, directional bets made too early in the week tend to underperform, while those based on implied barrier structures or gamma scalping into known event risk have seen better outcomes lately. Managing the risk profile across sessions — rather than relying on static strategy execution — pays off more visibly during such quiet starts.
