The head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Miran, indicates that tax cuts and deregulation are forthcoming. He notes that the March jobs report implies that closing the border could have minimal impact on payrolls.
Miran mentions existing market volatility due to uncertainties. He asserts that the current administration is establishing the foundation for an economic boom that markets are expected to acknowledge soon.
The Economic Stance
What Miran is effectively communicating here is a broader economic stance from the administration suggesting that moves such as tax reductions and removal of certain regulatory barriers are not only likely but imminent. Such structural changes often serve to reduce business costs and can therefore encourage hiring, investment, and consumer spending.
His reference to the March jobs data is more than just commentary; it offers a justification against criticism of the administration’s border policy. By framing the reported job growth as resilient even in the face of possible border restrictions, Miran suggests that labour market strength is entrenched enough to absorb policy shocks.
He also ties current market volatility to broader uncertainty, which we understand to be linked to fiscal and trade direction, and perhaps global dynamics impacting capital flows. Acknowledging volatility is one thing, connecting it to future growth is another. He appears confident that despite present-day swings in sentiment or asset pricing, structural conditions are being laid such that a period of strong GDP expansion might emerge. In short, we read this as a nudge to investors who may be hesitating: the administration believes markets will catch up to underlying changes.
For those navigating short-term futures and options, this rhetoric is far from neutral. It’s a statement blended with intention—a mixture of economic signalling and political narrative. From a forward-looking perspective, there’s little ambiguity: we’re being told that asset prices are underreacting to incoming policy levers.
Monitoring Fiscal Announcements
In the coming weeks, we need to monitor the detail and timing of any fiscal announcements, particularly those around legislative timelines. The market has a tendency to price in momentum far more quickly than conviction. Any meaningful reduction in corporate tax rates, if followed through, might push short-dated interest rate expectations higher, though not necessarily steepen the curve unless productivity picks up.
We should also be watching for how risk assets behave during periods of high conviction speeches or publications. Volatility clusters around fiscal events mean optionality can become more expensive. For strategies built on gamma, positioning before and exiting on follow-through might offer a more favourable skew than holding through uncertainty. Skew itself is liable to shift fast once these policies are codified.
Given the directional nature of Miran’s outlook, there’s room to adjust sensitivity to macro surprises. Derivatives pricing, especially in equity-linked instruments, may begin carrying a bias based on these anticipated developments. Short volatility structures could become difficult to manage if fresh tax policy begins moving through Congress faster than expected.
We should use this period to reprice political intent. Miran’s remarks, though administrative, are rarely random. When such positioning is this deliberate, it feeds directly into expectations management. For any instruments tied to fiscal expansion—whether earnings-driven or rate-sensitive—response time is everything.
Lastly, don’t discount the strength of employment data as a backdrop. If hiring continues despite restrictive conditions, broader assessments of consumption may need recalibrating, and the breakeven levels of inflation might inch up. Bond vols could behave irregularly if future job reports maintain strength. In any case, positioning ahead of the macro calendar, and favouring liquidity over reach, might reduce downside surprises.
