The NASDAQ index has fallen below the 50% midpoint of the rise from the October 2022 low, which is set at 15146.70. Key swing highs and lows from early 2024 cluster near this level, creating resistance between 15146 and 15215.
Without breaching this resistance, attention shifts to the downside, targeting a swing area between 14359 and 14504.
For the S&P index, prices have dropped below the April 18 swing low of 4953.56 and the crucial 5000 mark, which now forms resistance that must be overcome.
Technically Important Levels
Support is found between 4796.57 and 4817.87, with the 50% midpoint at 4817.87. A break below this support zone may further lead towards bearish trends.
What this tells us is that both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have reached technically important levels and failed to hold above them. In the case of the NASDAQ, falling through the midpoint of the move off the October 2022 low suggests that the broader uptrend might now be seeing its footing questioned. It’s not just about that specific price point of 15146.70; rather, it’s the fact that previous turning points from earlier this year lie in the same area. The failed test above this resistance hints at sellers reasserting control where buyers had previously defended levels.
The S&P’s slide under the April swing low and the psychological 5000 line mirrors a similar deterioration. The fact that the 5000 level flipped from a support to a resistance shows us that market participants are re-pricing risk more defensively. When those well-known round numbers lose integrity, we usually see a shift in sentiment that isn’t short-lived. A bounce can’t be trusted unless it reclaims both 4953 and 5000 in force.
The support just beneath the S&P around the 4800 mark isn’t random. It’s reinforced by the midpoint of the latest big leg higher. That suggests that a bounce could happen there—but only temporarily—if larger participants decide to square up ahead of an even deeper move lower. If that area is breached, we are likely not just looking at further declines, but at a change in behaviour from buyers—they’re no longer absorbing the pressure but stepping aside.
Watching The Retest Zones
Given this backdrop, derivative traders should narrow their focus onto those few carefully defined zones on the charts. Large players respect these areas—for entries, for risk definition, and increasingly, for exits. Moves away from these levels tend to accelerate once confirmed.
Any attempt to position without clear confirmation from price action at these key zones risks being on the wrong side of rapid repricing—a common occurrence when technical levels fail in high-volatility backdrops like this. Being patient until price interacts with well-defined support or resistance will reduce false starts.
Furthermore, keep in mind that reversals usually show their hand first through structure. That means watching for failed lows or highs near those banded levels before acting. Retracements that stall below former supports now turned resistance areas are better entries than trying to catch a falling market. That applies both ways, as broken supports are often tested again before continuation.
Volume confirmation would help. Moves that happen with thin participation tend to fall apart. Wait for alignment.
We’re closely watching the retest zones already mapped out. If price touches those and stalls, fades become viable. If they clear, the market may squeeze. Timing matters—but levels matter more.
