The EURUSD currency pair entered a topside range yesterday between 1.1001 and 1.1213 and gained momentum in trading today. It reached a high of 1.1098 before declining below the swing area’s low at 1.1001, currently sitting at 1.0989, with a low of 1.0960.
If the price remains below the range defined as the “Red Box” from 1.1001 to 1.10145, sellers may maintain their position. However, a rise above this level could lead to quick buying, particularly ahead of the weekend.
Key Downside Targets
On the downside, key targets include 1.0936 to 1.0954 and 1.08586, marked by the 100-hour moving average. Each price drop below these levels could boost seller confidence while causing hesitation among buyers.
The earlier section outlines events over the past couple of sessions, during which the euro-dollar pair showed signs of topping out near a previously identified resistance band. That band, termed the “Red Box,” spans between 1.1001 and 1.10145—the upper end of a range traders have been keeping an eye on since yesterday. After flirting with the high end of the range, the pair retreated, dipping below the base at 1.1001. It edged even lower, briefly touching 1.0960, and as of now, it’s parked around 1.0989.
To put that in plain terms: the currency attempted to push higher, failed to hang on, and has since drifted lower. That failure just above 1.1000 does matter. When prices try to rise but can’t stay up, it’s often a sign that buyers may be tiring or that they’re stepping aside. Some who were expecting a breakout higher might now be reconsidering. The range becomes more than just a technical note—it acts as a barrier that the price couldn’t pass through.
We’ve seen in the past that when levels like these are rejected, it can catch the attention of short-term sellers who want to take advantage of the pullback. If the price remains under that red zone, it’s fair to say that participants holding sell-side exposure could feel more comfortable letting those trades run a little longer. Of course, that’s not a blanket invitation to jump in. But for anyone already positioned below 1.1000, maintaining that stance might still present better odds.
Pressure On Lower Reference Points
Now, pressure is building near some lower reference points. Most notably the band between 1.0936 and 1.0954, and further down at 1.08586, where the 100-hour moving average comes into play. These levels aren’t being watched out of habit—they’ve acted as support before. If we slip past one, and then the other, don’t be surprised to see fresh short interest picking up again. Each move lower can tip the balance in favour of bears.
From our side, where we see the reaction at these landmarks will be more telling than just watching the candles alone. If price behaviour becomes erratic or lacks follow-through, that might keep us cautious, even if we’re leaning towards downside expectations.
Heading into the next several sessions, what interests us is the hesitation we’ve already seen. The inability to hold above the familiar ceiling could cause some second-guessing over the weekend and into the early week ahead—particularly if we stay subdued and under the 1.1000 handle. There’s no reason to force positioning if the market sits in limbo, but there’s also little sense in ignoring opportunities that line up with existing levels, especially when the path underfoot looks a bit cleaner than what’s above.
