Brent crude has continued its downward trend after breaking through key support levels from earlier this year. The price fell below the $68.10/68.70 range, which marked troughs for 2024 and March.
Analysts note that the daily MACD has reached multi-month lows, indicating a stretched decline. However, signs of a rebound have not yet appeared.
future projections for brent crude
Future projections suggest potential levels at $57.80 and $54. Should a brief recovery occur, resistance may be encountered at the $68.10/68.70 range.
The continued decline in Brent crude has reaffirmed technical weakness, particularly after slicing through what had been firm support zones from March and earlier in the year. With prices now beneath the $68.10 to $68.70 range, prior floors have failed to hold the weight of downward pressure, leading to a clear shift in market tone.
The fact that the daily MACD is sitting at multi-month lows tells us momentum has run significantly ahead of itself. At these extremes, conditions can often attract swift corrections, though there is no firm evidence yet that a reversal is beginning. We see no divergence or emergence of a base that usually precedes a proper bounce.
Looking ahead, technical levels point to $57.80 and $54 as the next areas where some stability might form, should this slide continue with current intensity. These are not arbitrary numbers—they align with past troughs and retracement zones on weekly and monthly charts.
price linked exposures and strategies
Any short-lived lift in price, possibly sparked by bargain-hunting or position-covering, will likely stall near that same $68.10 to $68.70 range, which now acts as overhead resistance. Security above that level would alter the technical profile, but as of now, any recovery would meet friction there.
For those engaging with price-linked exposures, most notably through options or structured futures trades, the pattern observed encourages a carefully hedged stance. Unless volatility data or volume dynamics start shifting, betting on sustained upside might lack reinforcement from trend-based metrics.
This kind of flattening momentum, without counter-pressure visible in the oscillators, generally points to continued softness. Tactical adjustments may be required, particularly for shorter-dated expiries, and rolling strategies may need to favour lower strikes in the near term.
We continue to monitor cross-asset correlations that might offer clues, particularly from energy-linked equities and currency moves, though at present those signals remain muted. The deeper the move below prior supports, the more pronounced attention should be on protecting downside exposure rather than anticipating a rebound that hasn’t yet materialised in any reliable indicator.
