EUR/GBP has moved above the 200-day moving average, indicating a strong upward trend. The pair is currently seeking to break free from a multi-month consolidation phase.
The next resistance zone is within the range of 0.8510 to 0.8530, the upper limit of a descending channel since 2023. If the pair sustains above this level, further upward movement may occur.
Projected Objectives
Projected objectives include levels at 0.8575 and the previous high from August at 0.8625 to 0.8650. Maintaining support at the 0.8375 moving average is essential for the continuation of this upward trend.
Having climbed above the 200-day moving average, EUR/GBP is showing the kind of directional commitment we hadn’t seen for several months. Typically, moves like this—especially after a long sideways stretch—suggest that momentum has begun shifting more decisively. What we’ve observed is a break from inertia, and that’s not something the market gives lightly.
Currently, it’s pressing up against an area that has blocked progress since early last year. The 0.8510 to 0.8530 zone isn’t just random—it’s tied to the upper limit of a descending structure that’s been in place since 2023. These types of long-standing chart formations don’t vanish quietly. Once a price starts pressing at the outer edge, we tend to see volatility pick up, with orders stacked just beyond to either capitalise on a breakthrough or reject it entirely.
If the pair can actually hold above the 0.8530 mark, and we mean for more than a few long wicks on the hourly, the next set of targeted prices comes into view rather quickly. First, the 0.8575 level stands out—not because it’s the most recent high, but because it’s where buyers recently lost nerve. Beyond that, the 0.8625 to 0.8650 region marks a point where momentum previously failed, back in August. There’s institutional memory there, which can either invite profit-taking or encourage conviction-scale buying. We must watch how sellers react if price returns to that zone.
Key Structural Base
That being said, the 0.8375 level serves as a key structural base for this entire move. Sitting on the 200-day, it’s not just a moving average for the sake of it—traders have been responding to it, quite visibly. Dips towards that level without a decisive rejection would suggest this move may be less durable than it looked at first glance.
From a positioning standpoint, we’ve started reducing short-dated gamma exposure, given the directional tilt and the shrinking probability of mean reversion. Implied vols aren’t screaming, but pricing of forward skew shows a preference for calls over puts near-term, reinforcing that upward bias.
We’ve also noticed risk reversals shifting gradually in favour of topside protection, a behaviour that often pre-empts a persistent trend move. That said, daily closes are going to matter more now than intraday pushes, especially as near-term flow remains sensitive to data and rate repricing. With no appetite for sustained two-way flow at the moment, we approach rallies with a stricter focus on execution and rollover in case holding costs turn unfavourable.
If higher targets are reached in the next several sessions, we’ll need to re-evaluate the durability of the move by looking at whether open interest supports it, especially across short strike call spreads. For now, continuation setups will need continued support from broader euro strength and benign sterling data. Premature rotation into range-trading assumptions would be misfired.
Every leg higher must justify itself now. Invalidations are near-term and should remain tight. Complacency at this stage is not part of the playbook.
