The AUDUSD experienced a halt in its upward momentum, facing resistance between 0.64278 and 0.6444, which includes a 50% retracement from the October 2024 high. The price touched 0.6437 and then dropped.

In the Asian-Pacific session, the AUDUSD rose slightly, reaching 0.6439, but did not surpass the resistance at 0.6444. This led to a downward reversal during the European and early U.S. trading sessions.

The pair has now declined below the February 20 high of 0.6407 and the prior swing level at 0.6390, a resistance point in recent weeks. After initially surpassing this level, it failed to sustain its position, favouring sellers.

The current price is 0.6386, under the critical 0.6390 to 0.6407 area. If sellers can maintain control, there is potential for further decline towards the support zone between 0.6326 and 0.63406. This area contains prior lows and highs which may see renewed buying interest. Sellers continue to dominate the market, exploring further downside possibilities.

What we’ve seen so far is a stalling of bullish enthusiasm, with the pair losing steam just shy of a key retracement level. This pullback wasn’t entirely unexpected given that we approached the midpoint of the October high and a known resistance pocket between 0.64278 and 0.6444. When price met 0.6437, sellers stepped in with confidence. The retreat since then has been relatively orderly but persistent.

During the Asian hours, there was an attempt to regain some traction, almost brushing that same upper bound again at 0.6439. Yet, once the market opened in Europe, and later into early New York trade, bearish pressure began to outweigh the prior optimism. Short interest increased, especially once the price fell demonstrably beneath 0.6407. That level had marked the February 20 high—more importantly, it had recently flipped into an area where buyers previously stepped in. Rejection below it confirms that market participants are no longer respecting it the same way.

Now sitting at 0.6386, the pair has again crossed beneath the 0.6390-0.6407 band, and it’s showing no immediate sign of a bounce. If we see intraday closes pulling further away from this zone, the momentum is likely to attract more downside interest. The upcoming levels to watch lie in the 0.6326 to 0.63406 area, where historically price has paused or reversed. These are not speculative levels—they’ve held as magnets for participants in previous months.

From our perspective, this setup produces directional bias, especially in shorter timeframes, where stop placements and liquidity pockets are often clustered around recent swing points. For those managing leveraged exposure, it’s now a question of identifying price action below 0.6390 as a signal for retesting prior demand. If sellers maintain their grip, the lower support area becomes active once more.

Watching how price behaves upon approaching 0.6340 becomes essential. Should the pair fall into that zone without signs of resistance from buyers, it raises the likelihood that more defensive positioning will follow. At this point, we’re likely to see increased volatility, not necessarily in heightened ranges, but in more rapid directional shifts.

We should stay attentive to volume fluctuations and monitor whether the market digests these lower prices smoothly. Should liquidity thin out while heading downward, a sharper rejection may follow. Until then, we focus on identifying short-term opportunities that reflect this prevailing bearish skew—particularly around former support levels that become resistance if price rallies intraday.