The AUDUSD pair is once again facing resistance at the 100-day moving average, experiencing repeated failures to break through this level. This resistance has previously capped rallies in February and led to failed breakouts in March.
Currently, the price is testing a crucial support area at 0.6224, which combines the 61.8% retracement from February’s low, the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and a prior swing area. A break below this support would increase bearish pressure and target further support near 0.61779 and 0.61608.
Price Action Dynamics
Conversely, if the price holds above this zone, a bounce could occur, but bulls would need to surpass the 100-day MA at approximately 0.63935 for a stronger upward shift. The broader trend remains downward, with sellers retaining short-term control over market dynamics.
What we’re seeing here is a market struggling to gather enough strength to break out of a defined range. The 100-day moving average, which traders use as a longer-term indicator of medium trend direction, has become an overhead ceiling that the pair simply cannot close above with any consistency. The recent failures in February and March weren’t isolated events, but rather deeper signs of this underlying resistance level functioning effectively as a cap. It’s as though momentum builds up into these tests, but never enough to fully shift sentiment or allow price to close on the other side of that level.
Right now, price action is hovering near a confluence of support that’s not just one line on a chart, but rather a mix of three clearer signals lining up in the same small region. That overlap typically attracts attention from active short-term traders. There’s a Fibonacci retracement level there drawn from February’s low, which helps gauge how much of a previous rise has been given back. Added to this is the 100-period average from the 4-hour window—slower than lower timeframes, but still reactive to recent momentum—and a nearby prior structure where price stalled previously. Together, these form a zone that clearly matters. If selling picks up steam and drives through that area with volume, we’ll almost certainly be looking at fresh lows.
Should that occur, focus would naturally shift to the next couple of nearby levels, lying just beneath current support. They sit near 0.6178 and then lower at 0.6160, both of which have a modest history of attracting buyers, albeit temporarily. If price accelerates toward them quickly, the speed of the drop could scare away bids until lower down. That’s when positioning becomes more defensive.
Market Outlook
However, if this support zone holds firm, the price could bounce. But such a move wouldn’t shift the structure unless buyers also manage to push beyond the 100-day moving average. A retrace back through that level wouldn’t just need follow-through—it would need participation, conviction, and ideally some support from broader risk sentiment or fundamental input.
As things stand, the broader trend has skewed lower, with bearish momentum asserting itself in a series of lower highs and heavy rejections on rallies. Sellers remain active, stepping in on intraday strength and using opportunities like failed tests of moving averages as entries. The pair’s inability to climb back into a higher range after every attempted breakout suggests buyers are not yet committed to longer hold positions or lack confidence at key levels. That formation usually leads us to reduce upside expectations and keep options flow more protective.
In the coming days and weeks, we will continue watching how the price behaves around current support. Sustained selling below might change how we position next layers of protection. Conversely, patience will be required on any rallies—especially if they happen without a broader change in risk tone.
