The AUDUSD is currently testing its 100-day moving average, which is close to 0.62917. Previous attempts to break above this level failed at 0.6390, with the pair subsequently moving lower. The current attempt has shown less strength, reaching 0.6340 before reversing direction.
If the currency pair does not maintain its position above the 100-day moving average, focus will shift to support targets below. These include the 200-hour moving average at 0.6259 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.6220. Falling below these levels would indicate that the recent breakout was not sustained, giving sellers the upper hand.
Technical Outlook
The technical outlook remains uncertain, with buyers needing to surpass and maintain above the 100-day moving average. Without sustaining this upward move, the sentiment remains bearish. This suggests the AUDUSD could continue to follow this pattern.
Key levels to watch include resistance at 0.62917 (100-day moving average), 0.6340, and 0.6390. Support levels are at 0.6259 (200-hour moving average) and 0.6220 (100-hour moving average).
What we’re seeing here is a retest of broader resistance in the AUDUSD, with price action again struggling to find traction above a long-term moving average — in this case, the 100-day level around 0.62917. Previous rallies had reached as far as 0.6390, but without follow-through, each move higher dissolved, dragging the pair back down. The most recent push barely made it to 0.6340 before losing steam, suggesting buyers are still reticent at these levels or lack the conviction to hold gains.
The fact that price reversed more quickly this time implies momentum on the upside is waning. Watching how the pair behaves around the same 100-day marker — and how far it strays from it — gives a useful read on medium-term sentiment. Should this level continue to reject upward moves, focus naturally shifts to short-term support zones. The 200-hour moving average at 0.6259 becomes immediately relevant, and beneath that, the 100-hour at 0.6220. A breach of both would mean prices are no longer rotating near the middle of the recent distribution range, but instead slipping lower — possibly inviting more directional bets against the AUD.
Price Movement Analysis
It’s in these lower zones that sellers tend to become more assertive, especially if those watching for a breakout see no evidence of sustained buying. When prices crack through multiple support thresholds in succession, they often take time to recover — and may even accelerate lower before finding stability again. So, attention should remain fixed on whether price merely dips or genuinely closes beneath these intraday markers. Hourly closes below 0.6220, for instance, would begin to shift near-term scenarios and inflame a more persistent short-side chase.
That said, it isn’t one-way traffic. If the pair again rises but this time sustains beyond the 0.62917 marker, buyers will then have to contend with nearer resistance levels. There’s always an argument that when a line like the 100-day average stalls prices repeatedly, a break above it can encourage participation in size — particularly if it’s accompanied by rising volume. So far, that’s not been the case, and recent attempts have lacked conviction. This gives the impression we’re still very much within the range phase.
From where we stand, the key is not just touching these levels, but holding above or below them for sustained intervals. In this type of trade, we can’t rely on initial breaks alone — confirmation only arrives when the price action stays committed. Until then, each move beyond resistance or support should be approached with doubt, especially within a broader sideways structure. For the time being, oscillation within a defined range continues to dominate, and that often means short-term levels carry more weight than usual.
It’s these nuances — the way price reacts after tapping into these moving averages, or how long it lingers near them before rejecting — that give strong clues. Sharp rejections tell one story, slow drifts tell another. In current conditions, traders often lean on moving average clusters like these because they help filter through the noise. They provide structure when price stubbornly refuses to trend.
Price isn’t just moving randomly between levels — it’s rotating around them. Holding above 0.62917 would imply accumulation. Rejection opens the door for a deeper push back to previous hourly supports. The key in all of this is whether moves are accepted. That’s why watching which levels price closes near, and how quickly it accelerates through or away, offers valuable confirmation. This week’s behaviour will either reinforce the bearish lean already present, or provide new context suggesting a base is forming. Either way, a sharper directional bias will likely hinge on how long these boundaries contain price.
