The CFTC reports that oil non-commercial net positions remain unchanged at 167.7K.
Gold prices are near all-time highs at around $3,250, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets and concerns over trade wars and US inflation.
Euro And Us Dollar Dynamics
The EUR/USD pair has retreated to about 1.1300, stepping back from a recent peak of 1.1473, amid trade tensions and US recession fears, despite Wall Street’s gains.
GBP/USD has fallen to the 1.3050 area, giving up some of its earlier advances as the US Dollar faces pressure due to the ongoing trade conflict.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to stabilise with a market capitalisation of approximately $2.69 trillion, recovering from recent volatility.
Wall Street experienced gains following tariff delays announced by Trump, although concerns over a possible recession linger in the market.
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The unchanged oil non-commercial net positions at 167.7K suggest that speculative interest in the crude market has paused for now. This stability, particularly in the face of volatile macro events, reflects either a wait-and-see attitude or a period of consolidation. For those of us watching energy derivatives, the lack of movement may imply limited directional conviction in the near term. Typically, if geopolitical risks or supply data shift sharply — and neither has for now — that stasis could break. But for the moment, it’s more of a holding pattern.
In contrast, the continued rise in gold presents a clearer story. Trading at around $3,250, edging near historical highs, gold demonstrates its persistent role as a hedge when broader market fear takes hold. Concerns about a looming trade war and inflation in the US have made the metal attractive. Moreover, it’s not just about inflation anymore; there’s a growth story at risk. Recently revised inflation expectations and concurrent softening in manufacturing indicators are giving weight to the bid. When buyers keep stepping in despite historically high prices, that tends to reinforce momentum in precious metals contracts — not just futures but options as well.
Turning to currency markets, the EUR/USD pullback to the 1.1300 range is telling. After topping out near 1.1473, the decline highlights how fragile recent enthusiasm truly is. Despite solid earnings on Wall Street, the pair reacted more to worsening forward sentiment regarding the US economy. It’s not merely trade war noise anymore; it’s about real economic softness showing in consumer and PMI figures. For euro-denominated contracts, underlying anxiety over US data points will likely dominate flows in the weeks ahead, even if European releases stay mixed.
As for the pound, the slip in GBP/USD to the 1.3050 level marks the end of a rally that lost steam. Forward-looking traders in sterling-denominated products should note that while the greenback remains under pressure — mostly due to fiscal uncertainty and slowing growth — cable was unable to hold earlier gains. This reflects a fading of speculative buying interest rather than renewed confidence in either currency. Indeed, softer retail and housing figures in Britain coupled with cautious Bank of England signalling are ingredients not typically associated with bullish strategies.
Meanwhile, the crypto market appears to have found a footing, with global capitalisation recovering to roughly $2.69 trillion. After the steep fluctuations earlier this quarter, this level suggests stabilisation, though not yet one leading to fresh highs. For us, charting this recovery through open interest data and implied volatility could help inform short-term bets, particularly as institutional activity begins to reappear in on-chain metrics. Derivative volumes have picked up, though remain below peak levels from last year — a sign that confidence is improving, but tentatively.
Wall Street itself got a temporary lift after US President Trump announced delays to planned tariffs. But despite equities posting gains in response, broader unease hasn’t left the market. Fears of recession, signalled by a flattening yield curve and slower job growth, continue to simmer under the surface. Equities are often slower to price in risk than credit markets or currencies, which makes index-based futures worth watching closely for early signs of sentiment turning again.
Finally, while broker selections for EUR/USD into next year offer advantages such as lower spreads and robust tech, that’s secondary to what’s ahead in terms of policy shifts and potential volatility triggers. As we assess opportunities heading into Q1, the tools matter less than timing and access to liquidity during event-driven moves. Stickiness around the 1.1300 mark won’t last indefinitely, and the better-prepared we are to adjust granular position sizes in response, the more durable performance tends to become.
