EUR/USD trades around the 1.1200 mark following a strong rally, marking a significant increase in recent performance. The pair is testing new highs for 2025, having moved within a range of 1.09426 to 1.1220.
Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with the RSI at 70.98 and a buy signal from the MACD. Key moving averages, including the 20-day SMA at 1.08865, support the overall upward trend.
Initial support levels are identified at 1.10309 and 1.09606, while resistance is less clear due to trading near yearly highs. Traders may look to psychological levels or Fibonacci projections for future hurdles.
Recent Market Behavior
At present, the EUR/USD pair is hovering near the 1.1200 region, firmly supported by buy-side activity that has dominated over recent sessions. The recent breakout has pushed well beyond the 20-day simple moving average, which remains well below price action at 1.08865, reinforcing the broader bias we’ve seen developing since late May. RSI giving a print above 70 isn’t particularly subtle; it reflects a market that’s been driven hard, and now potentially sits in overbought territory, a point which often calls for closer inspection rather than simple celebration.
Looking back over the range — from roughly 1.09426 to 1.1220 — we’re clearly seeing a stretch into new highs for 2025. That’s not trivial. Still, nothing runs forever. With price currently flirting near recent extremes, it’s possible that volumes may thin slightly while positioning adjusts. There’s merit in watching how price behaves over the coming days near these levels. Any sustained hold above the 1.1200–1.1220 zone would likely attract further long exposure.
Support underneath, particularly around 1.10309 and then lower at 1.09606, isn’t just arbitrary. Both areas align with recent consolidation zones and previous reaction points. If price were to come off these highs, those regions could act as checkpoints; think of them as stages in a broader retracement — well-suited for monitoring possible re-entry or risk valuation.
Technical Resistance and Momentum
Resistance becomes harder to anchor when you’re trading at territory not seen in a while. Rather than picking arbitrary caps, Fibonacci extensions could be useful from earlier moves. One way we’re thinking about it is to focus on the potential 1.1270–1.1300 pocket, a likely magnet if momentum holds. Just be aware that near-term pushes into that zone may be more about exploratory drives than sustained value seeking.
From the technicals, MACD also continues to reflect buyer preference. It’s not surprising — this rally has been uninterrupted enough to avoid crossovers. But if price begins to round out, or we start seeing MACD histogram contraction, then that might be the early tip for a short-term shift in control — even if broader direction remains intact.
For those active in rate-sensitive derivatives, particularly euro-based contracts, movements in this pair often precede or mirror positioning in short-end interest rates. It’s not always linear, but the correlation tends to stay visible on most trading horizons. As a result, swings in this currency can shadow shifts in hedge demand or even expose leanings in central bank pricing.
We should also remember quiet calendar conditions can spice things up. Lower liquidity during European or US bank holidays, for instance, can accelerate moves either way, especially if they’re not expected. Option expiry levels around big handles like 1.1200 tend to bring short bursts of activity — worth mapping daily.
Momentum is still bullish, yes — but when things start operating at the upper edges like this, short-term traders typically trail stops tighter, while longer-term participants wait for pullbacks toward soft supports. Early watching around hourly reversals or volume drops could add a useful edge in judging if control is slipping from buyers.
