EURUSD is experiencing an upward movement, while major US indices are showing declines in pre-market trading. The S&P index has decreased by 59.32 points, the Dow industrial average has fallen by 342 points, and the NASDAQ index has dropped by 255 points.
In the US debt market, yields have decreased; the 2-year yield is down by 2.0 basis points, and the 10-year yield has dropped by 4.2 basis points. During the early North American session, EURUSD surged as buyers took control above the converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0804.
Technical outlook for eurusd
The price has climbed to 1.08252, extending the trading range to 46 pips, which is below the 84 pip average from the past 22 days. Future support is expected from the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, with upside targets at 1.08298 and 1.0848 to 1.08594.
What we’re seeing here is a move in EURUSD that’s gaining strength as key technical levels have been breached convincingly. Early in the session, when the price rose above both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages—coincidentally aligned at roughly 1.0804—we knew momentum was shifting. That convergence, typically a battleground between opposing pressure, once cleared, tends to act as a springboard, and that’s precisely what played out. Buyers stepped in firmly, and from that moment, the path towards the next upside levels seemed more likely than not.
The rally pushed the pair up to 1.08252, which, while not a large move in absolute terms, has nudged us into a tighter daily range than usual—46 pips compared to the 22-day average of 84. This compression could be due to lingering caution in broader markets, but it won’t last indefinitely. When ranges tighten, it’s usually followed by a burst in volatility, especially when underlying sentiment is shifting.
Wider market and sentiment shifts
Meanwhile, slipping yields across both 2-year and 10-year Treasuries point to demand for safer assets. We observe this often when equity markets retreat sharply, as they have here. The combined fall in all three major US equity indices before the cash open suggests a broader re-rating could be underway—from growth expectations to rate assumptions. It’s logical that this sentiment shift would spill over into currency markets too. In our experience, when yields fall and risk appetite weakens, dollar strength may abate, especially against currencies like the euro that are showing signs of technical support.
That brings us to the next levels of interest. Immediate resistance sits just ahead at 1.08298. Though modest, it could attract short-term selling. We’re watching that area closely. Beyond that, the next cluster around 1.08480 to 1.08594 looks more formidable—not just psychologically, but because of historical order activity. If we cross and hold above that region, it would mark a broader shift in short-term sentiment. Until then, the moving averages below offer a well-defined cushion, provided there’s no sharp reversal in yields or risk taker sentiment.
For now, we’re opting for patience on fresh positioning. Markets are currently digesting new themes in both equity fragility and rate expectations, and this translates into fast, sharp moves in FX when triggers occur. As such, we’re focused on defined levels and reactive setups rather than broad directional forecasts.
