The United States Import Price Index dropped to 0.9% year-on-year in March, down from a previous figure of 2%. This decline suggests changes in the pricing of imported goods entering the United States.
AUD/USD is approaching its monthly high of around 0.6390 despite ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. The US Dollar remains pressured after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, excluding those against China.
EUR/USD Market Trends
EUR/USD continues to trade below the 1.1300 mark, currently revisiting the 1.1280 area. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar gains strength, coupled with mixed economic indicators from Europe.
Gold prices are consolidating around $3,200 per troy ounce. The precious metal is stabilising amid positive risk sentiment, though concerns about global trade disputes have limited substantial gains.
Cryptocurrency markets, including XRP and Dogecoin, are showing signs of recovery following recent tariff-related volatility. President Trump’s announcements have led to fluctuating prices for Bitcoin and other altcoins.
Wall Street witnessed gains as Trump delayed certain tariffs, though concerns over ongoing trade tensions persist. Market participants remain cautious, aware of potential deeper impacts from unresolved trade conflicts.
Market Updates and Trends
This recent set of market updates paints a clearer short-term picture as we move deeper into the second quarter. The dip in the U.S. Import Price Index to 0.9% year-on-year suggests that raw cost pressure from overseas is easing, which could influence Federal Reserve expectations. In practical terms, lower import prices trim inflationary momentum. That makes it slightly less likely the Fed will raise rates aggressively in coming meetings. For us, that translates to a softer U.S. Dollar, unless countered by stronger domestic growth or hawkish commentary from Fed officials.
Regarding AUD/USD, it’s testing levels near its monthly high of 0.6390. Given strained US-China trade relations, this resilience in the Aussie is noteworthy. Traders anticipating a short-term move higher should pay attention to near-dated option flows and any China-related economic data. With tariffs mostly excluding Beijing but encompassing other partners, Canberra’s exposure to both those markets complicates the currency outlook. We’re seeing long gamma positioning increase around current levels, which could limit short-term volatility.
For EUR/USD, the pair remains soft beneath 1.1300. The recent move back towards 1.1280 reflects two things: modest Dollar recovery and growing inconsistency in eurozone data releases. Scatter in PMI numbers, combined with political deadlock in some member states, leans bearish. Options markets show light activity in upside calls as conviction weakens. Unless Europe prints a strong data surprise or the Fed surprises dovish, we might continue to see the euro fade at resistance.
Spot gold consolidating around $3,200 per ounce shows a measured mood in commodities. Investors are balancing optimism in equities with unresolved macro risks, which leaves the metal range-bound for now. Directional option flows are subdued, and vols have flattened into the front-end curves. Risk sentiment is lifting, but no strong inflows are emerging into metals just yet. Any pickup in safe-haven buying would require a fresh macro catalyst, such as policy missteps or new sanctions elsewhere.
Looking to digital assets, we are observing a tentative recovery. Altcoins such as XRP and Dogecoin responded sharply to policy-induced volatility but are back on the mend. BTC options volumes spiked in response to tariff headlines, though we’ve noticed that implied volatility is already starting to compress again. Liquidity is returning after a patchy fortnight, and more structured buying is evident on dips, especially in Bitcoin and high-beta coins.
Broad equity indices climbed following a delay in certain tariffs. Although that move injected short-term support, we are not seeing extended bullish follow-through. Market sensitivities to trade developments remain high, and sentiment still feels nervous under the surface. Volatility is not collapsing, and weekly S&P 500 options continue to price in potential swings around trade updates. It’s clear equity traders are reluctant to buy longer-dated upside without clarity on broader fiscal or international developments.
Through all of this, we find that derivative markets are showing opportunity—though timing remains critical. Directional trades should be supported by tight catalysts, and hedging remains just as important now as entry levels. Moving forward, we are watching skew changes, short-dated implieds, and macro crosscurrents to help pinpoint sustainable movement rather than overstretched momentum.
