The ISM Services New Orders Index for March stands at 50.4, down from 52.2 previously. This change reflects ongoing concerns about the US economy and other market factors.
AUD/USD has increased for three consecutive days, nearing the 0.6400 resistance level, influenced by a decline in the US Dollar amid recession worries. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has reached multi-month highs near 1.1150 but showed volatility during the trading session.
Gold And Crypto Divergence
Gold prices recovered, nearing $3,115, amid rising global trade war fears. Ethereum experienced a 3% decline, although selling pressure may ease as many short-term holders sold in March.
President Trump is set to announce new reciprocal tariffs after earlier delays. Trading foreign exchange involves considerable risk, and potential losses may be substantial.
With US services new orders barely expanding in March, dipping to 50.4 from February’s 52.2, concerns have deepened around the resilience of domestic demand. This reading, teetering just above contraction, might suggest that growth in the non-manufacturing sector is losing momentum. For us, this offers a helpful directional cue: traders structured around macroeconomic data might expect reduced consumer and business activity, affecting forward positioning.
In foreign exchange, the Australian dollar has crept higher for three sessions, brushing up near a known barrier at 0.6400. The move appears strongly tied to a broadly weaker US dollar as anxiety over a possible downturn has increased. The sentiment shift, if sustained, could support carry trade strategies but makes dollar-denominated hedging more unpredictable. The risk-on tilt may fade quickly should any new economic data from the US reflect deeper contraction.
Euro And Volatility Dynamics
Across the Atlantic, the euro has surged towards levels not seen in months, close to 1.1150, before retreating slightly within the session. It tells us there is appetite for currency rotation, but it hasn’t brought lasting stability. Movements during the day suggest market participants are reacting swiftly to headlines. For option traders, this could increase implied volatility and pricing opportunities on both sides, assuming liquidity holds up.
Gold’s resurgence to nearly $3,115 reveals a strong bid for safe assets, mainly underpinned by heightened concern about international trade. Our reading of this shift indicates that investors are preparing for the possibility of retaliatory moves—not just verbal posturing. It’s an environment where long-dated calls could gain traction, especially if further escalation comes via policy pronouncements.
Digital assets tell a different story. Ethereum fell by 3%, driven largely by earlier exits from short-term holders. While that selloff might now be behind us, it has led to thinning volume in some derivative instruments. Those managing delta exposure should be prepared for wider spreads intraday and sudden order book dislocations, particularly in an asset that remains sentiment-sensitive to both macro and tech narratives.
Former President Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement raises the likelihood of renewed cross-border tension. Although markets had been expecting this earlier in the year, the renewed focus has reintroduced headline risk that could rattle asset classes sensitive to trade flows. We should treat this as a potential volatility driver, especially for commodities and currencies tied to export economies.
Each of these data points paints a clearer picture of macro fragility. But it also sets the stage for more concentrated reactions in derivatives markets. Position sizing might need to be reviewed accordingly, factoring in the possibility of sharper moves from what might appear to be relatively minor drivers.
