The S&P 500 surged 1.81% higher on Friday, partially recovering from Thursday’s sell-off but not quite reaching Wednesday’s high. Futures indicated a further 1.3% rise following news of temporary tariff exemptions by the Trump administration on electronics from China.
Goldman Sachs reported its earnings, showing a more than 1% pre-market stock gain, kicking off a major week for corporate earnings. Meanwhile, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey reflected bearish sentiment, with 28.5% bullish and 58.9% bearish among individual investors.
Market Support And Resistance
Last week, the S&P 500 gained 5.70% from a local low of 4,835.04, hinting at a potential bottom forming despite trade policy uncertainties. Resistance was seen near 5,480, with key support around 5,000-5,100.
The Nasdaq 100 gained almost 2% on Friday, aided by tariff exemptions expected to benefit tech majors like Apple. Futures suggested a 1.7% higher open but uncertainty lingered, with resistance at 19,000-19,200 and support at 18,200.
The VIX, while off its highs, remained above historical norms, signalling ongoing market uncertainty. It typically correlates inversely with market movements, with a lower VIX pointing to possible reversals.
The S&P 500 futures contract showed 1.3% gains this morning, indicating possible buying interest at the open. Key support was around 5,350-5,400, with resistance near 5,500.
Trader Vs Investor Market
The article outlines a rebound in equities, particularly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, following a stretch of volatility driven by policy shifts and earnings season anticipation. While the S&P 500 gained nearly 2% on Friday, this was only a partial reversal of Thursday’s decline and still left benchmarks trailing Wednesday’s highs. The futures markets hinted at further gains into the week, supported by headlines that the Trump administration would temporarily exempt certain Chinese electronics from tariffs – a move markets interpreted as supportive for profit margins in the tech space.
Goldman Sachs was among the first of the large-cap names to report earnings, with shares rising ahead of the open. This points to early confidence in the corporate results that are due over the coming days. However, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey highlighted retail caution: almost 59% of respondents were bearish, more than double those who were bullish. Such pessimism often sets the tone for contrarian setups.
From a technical perspective, the recent low at 4,835 for the S&P 500 is now acting as a soft provisional base. We are watching the area between 5,000 and 5,100 closely for further evidence of demand. Momentum indicators and price action suggest that the resistance near 5,480 may be tested again soon, though strength above 5,500 would be needed to break the current range.
Moving to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, the tariff reprieve on consumer electronics served as a boost. The index rose by nearly 2%, largely on expectations that manufacturers and suppliers could see an improvement in cost structures. Futures positioned above 1.7% imply continued enthusiasm at the open, but the 19,000–19,200 range has proven to be an upper limit for now. Importantly, there is a cushion near 18,200 where buyers have also stepped in recently. The size and direction of moves in that band will influence forward expectations.
Volatility remains sticky. Although the VIX has moved down from last week’s peaks, it is still well above its multi-month average. Typically, when the VIX is higher than usual, equity traders look for an eventual calming period. But for now, it’s a sign of continued caution priced into options, especially on the downside.
This morning’s action in the S&P 500 futures market – showing gains nearing 1.3% – reflects heavy attention being paid to near-term catalysts. The 5,350–5,400 range has been active in the pre-market, suggesting that short-term traders have clear interest in finding support of some form within that window. Resistance at 5,500 is still acting as a short leash.
While the headline move may appear orderly, underlying positioning data signals a more defensive stance among institutions. We’ve noticed that short-dated puts remain elevated, implying that hedges are still intact. This doesn’t negate the recent rallies but does suggest that the sceptical tone is yet to be unwound.
For us, it means being selective with directional bets. Moves through key support levels must be respected, but failed breaks above resistance – especially in the 5,500–5,520 area – could offer opportunities to fade strength. The same applies to the Nasdaq 100 if it fails to settle cleanly above the 19,000 line and retests prior lows near 18,250.
Also worth noting: earnings over the next few days will carry as much interpretive weight as actual results. The market has been rewarding upside surprises, but the bar for expectations is creeping up. The reaction to these reports, not just the numbers themselves, will be more telling for high-beta sectors.
In general, this is more of a trader’s tape than an investor’s market. Ranges are forming, but conviction is lacking. Moves are reactive, with headlines swinging sentiment quickly. One-sided bets may be punished, especially as VIX levels continue to reflect fear underneath the surface calm. For now, keeping our options open – while always defining risk – is the most viable approach.
